Posted August 13, 2024
Tropical Storm Ernesto
Active Part of the Pattern thru Aug 22
We are in the active part of the pattern that last year produced Hurricane Franklin and Idalia. Ernesto was just named and is the 5th named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane season, tracked by Barcelona Supercomputing Center. Our partner company, Weather 2020, is one of the companies listed in their hurricane forecast.
When you look at the chart, you can see that most of the outlets were guessing a well above average season. Weather Bell is the highest with 14-15 hurricanes and we (FutureHurricanes) are the lowest.
Our hurricane forecast is similar to Weather 2020s. We listed 12 Named Storms, 6 Hurricanes, 2 Major. That is the lowest on the chart, including Weather 2020 with a range of 14 Named Stormes, 8-10 Hurricanes, 3-5 Major. At FutureHurricanes, we don’t do ranges, we set our ____ on the table and let it rip!
We have two prediction charts. The first chart was made back on March 8th. Those predictions are still valid, we revised the chart on June 2nd and left a few lessor possibilities off the new map. One of the possibilities is a possible landfall for New England August 18th, which would fit with Tropical Storm Ernestos timeframe.
The New England prediction is based on a similar path, so we’ll see what happens. The models have it staying off the US coast for now and seems to be following the path of Franklin.
Below is the path of Hurricane Franklin. Other than New England, we do have a possible hurricane making landfall at Nova Scotia (Sept 1 or Sept 9), as it is one of our hotspots this year, but we don’t have Ernesto hitting that area with this storm.
Presently, the GFS has it real close to making landfall near that area, we will follow the models as they refresh and update as necessary.
As you compare the chart to the above GFS chart at the beginning of the blog, you’ll notice a VERY similar path. Last year Hurricane Idalia also spun up and hit Florida. It does not appear that that will repeat at the moment. There is a tiny bit of convection in a similar location that spawned Idalia, but it looks like the winds are not favorable to spin up at this time. Take a look.
Official Predictions from March 8th, Revised June 3rd
Click to Enlarge
Pacific Northwest Cascade Mountains
Crystal Mountain, Mount Hood Meadows, Timberline, 49 Degrees North, Bachelor, Mt Baker,
Lake Tahoe Sierra Mountains
Heavenly, Palisades Tahoe, Kirkwood, Dodge Ridge, Donner Ski Ranch
Utah Wasatch Mountains
Alta, Park City, Deer Valley, Brighton, Snowbird, Brian Head
Colorado Rocky Mountains
Aspen, Aspen Highlands, Snowmass, Vail, Beaver Creek, Winter Park, Keystone, Arapahoe Basin, Breckenridge, Copper Mountain, Powderhorn, Ski Cooper, Telluride, Crested Butte, Silverton, Wolf Creek, Eldora, Loveland
Aspen Weather, Vail Weather, Lake Tahoe Weather, Breckenridge Weather, Beaver Creek Weather, Copper Mountain Weather, Arapahoe Basin Weather, Winter Park Weather, Telluride Weather, Crested Butte Weather, Eldora Weather, Loveland Weather, Alta Weather, Park City Weather, Deer Valley Weather, Snowbird Weather
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