Posted August 13, 2024 Updated
Active Part of the Pattern thru Aug 22
We are in the active part of the pattern that last year produced Hurricane Franklin and Idalia. Most of you probably don’t remember Franklin, it hit the Dominican and meandered out to sea. What you likely do remember is Idalia’s path through Florida. Check out their paths below.
I have been predicting hurricanes for just a few years now, using the LRC (Lezak’s Recurring Cycle) method, so I have not seen a lot of setups like this one. As always, it probably won’t happen, because the odds of predicting the path, location and date are astronomical for guessing, but we use the LRC, so we know, based on what has happened in the past could reoccur in the future.
This disturbance could also be the return of our predicted Corpus Christi hurricane last cycle, although the GFS has it taking a path similar to the aforementioned storm, Hurricane Franklin.
Based on that premise, this happened last year (GIF).
The first element of that setup is showing up now out in the Atlantic, and according to the NHC (National Hurricane Center), there is a chance of this disturbance of turning into a storm. Check out the GFS below.
We will sit back and wait to see how this plays out. Meanwhile, in the Pacific, we have a tropical storm showing up in the general area that is predicted to be out Typhoon prediction for August 13th. This storm is right on time but in the wrong spot. Could this be our Typhoon next cycle? Time will tell, there have been very strong indications that this will happen…stay tuned.
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Official Predictions from March 8th, Revised June 3rd
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12 Storms, 6 Hurricanes, 2 Major
Hurricane season lasts from June 1 to November 30, our forecast is thru October 1st. That is a distinction that needs to be reiterated. By October 1st, a completely new pattern emerges and storms that occur after that date, for the most part, are the new pattern. Meaning the LRC cannot know what that new pattern is until it develops.
Below is a list of major weather companies predictions for this year, compiled by the Barcelona Supercomputing Center. https://seasonalhurricanepredictions.bsc.es/
Pacific Northwest Cascade Mountains
Crystal Mountain, Mount Hood Meadows, Timberline, 49 Degrees North, Bachelor, Mt Baker,
Lake Tahoe Sierra Mountains
Heavenly, Palisades Tahoe, Kirkwood, Dodge Ridge, Donner Ski Ranch
Utah Wasatch Mountains
Alta, Park City, Deer Valley, Brighton, Snowbird, Brian Head
Colorado Rocky Mountains
Aspen, Aspen Highlands, Snowmass, Vail, Beaver Creek, Winter Park, Keystone, Arapahoe Basin, Breckenridge, Copper Mountain, Powderhorn, Ski Cooper, Telluride, Crested Butte, Silverton, Wolf Creek, Eldora, Loveland
Aspen Weather, Vail Weather, Lake Tahoe Weather, Breckenridge Weather, Beaver Creek Weather, Copper Mountain Weather, Arapahoe Basin Weather, Winter Park Weather, Telluride Weather, Crested Butte Weather, Eldora Weather, Loveland Weather, Alta Weather, Park City Weather, Deer Valley Weather, Snowbird Weather
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