Posted March 15 7:12 am MT 6:12 am PT
Snow Stake Cams
Pattern Summary
Day 17, Cycle 4, Captains log, Stardate 47634.44,
Ok, disregard the Star Trek reference, when I typed out the cycle date I thought of Captain Kirks log, way back when. I did look up how to convert today’s date into Stardate–not surprised there was actually a calculator online. The cycling pattern is throttling back a little as we have a break with teleconnection amplification. We also have a break in storms once this present storm passes.
The MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) has enters phase 1 and will meander towards phase 2, before becoming neutral. The Artic and North Atlantic Oscillations (AO, NAO) are neutral and projected to remain neutral for the next couple of weeks.
Long-Range Forecast Chart
Let’s take a look at the Long-Range Forecast Chart below. As you can see there is a small break, until the next series of storms in the Sierra. This is almost as noteworthy as predicting storms, this break was predicted 64 days ago. In a pattern like this, possibly the greatest season ever for Utah, it should be easy to predict long range.
We are sitting around 93% accurate. That’s insane. Embarrassingly too good, but it’s real, it happened. Nobody will believe this, is the thought I have quite often. Even if you were very critical of the chart and called all amounts below 10 inches a bust, we would be 48 for 66, or 73%. The last couple of years we have had 88% and 89% in La Nina seasons. It makes sense that in an “El Nino like” season it would be easier to predict.
In the 4th Long Range Forecast the shortest lead time was 27 days with the longest being 64 days. Once we get a couple of cycles in, we dial in the forecast window. Meaning storms have only 24 hours tolerance, instead of 48. The storm must produce measurable snowfall, above 2″ within 24 hours of the projected date. There are going to be systems that are weakened, due to high pressure, or no moisture. I set the bar at 2 inches because orographic snowfall can occur.
Mountains can get upslope flow and cause the air to cool causing the water vapor to condense producing snow. Resorts can get an inch due to no storm at all. Maybe we should raise that bar to 5 inches next year. Something to think about. If you have any suggestions, I’d love to hear them.
Forecast Summary
Bluebird skies today from the Pacific Northwest, Sierra and Wasatch mountains as a ridge of high pressure is in place through Sunday. Enjoy the fresh powder. Solitude is reporting 13, Alta 12, Snowbird 13 and Brighton 14.
Colorado gets center stage as the current system works its way through. There won’t be much snowfall for the northern mountains, the bullseye is centered in the central and southern ranges. Heavy snow with totals between 1-2 feet are possible for Wolf Creek. Telluride, Silverton and Crested Butte should see decent amounts this morning before the energy moves east.
The next system comes in Sunday afternoon to California and the Pacific Northwest.
Surface MSLP Chart
Utah Calendar Results to Date
Forecasted Areas
Pacific Northwest Cascade Mountains
Crystal Mountain, Mount Hood Meadows, Timberline, 49 Degrees North, Bachelor, Mt Baker,
Lake Tahoe Sierra Mountains
Heavenly, Palisades Tahoe, Kirkwood, Dodge Ridge, Donner Ski Ranch
Utah Wasatch Mountains
Alta, Park City, Deer Valley, Brighton, Snowbird, Brian Head
Colorado Rocky Mountains
Aspen, Aspen Highlands, Snowmass, Vail, Beaver Creek, Winter Park, Keystone, Arapahoe Basin, Breckenridge, Copper Mountain, Powderhorn, Ski Cooper, Telluride, Crested Butte, Silverton, Wolf Creek, Eldora, Loveland
mike, why am I locked out?
I sent a password reset.