Nov 21, 2024
Daily Snow Stake
GFS Surface, GFS All Snow thru Thanksgiving
California GFS, NAM, Euro Ensemble Click/Animate
Event Snowfall Totals (meteograms)
Forecast Summary
The storm that has been dumping in the Cascades is finally going to hit Lake Tahoe. Last week the models were skirting the Sierra and gradually began to shift the storm south. Now the models are predicting 2-4 feet of snow, above 8000′, by Sunday.
There are not many good meteograms (charts above) for the Tahoe area, just Truckee and Heavenly airports. I threw in Shasta just so you can get a sense of the scope of the storm. Shasta is predicted to receive 3 feet today thru tomorrow night.
Colorado has most of the state covered, near ski resorts, for their meteograms. Utah has Alta and Brian Head. I will try to include these maps for our long-range outlook, as they are helpful determining the size of the incoming storms. Of course, the storms need to be ON the model outlook, which is hit or miss, but WE know when they are correct.
Today
The pineapple express in in full force and the first wave is already reaching the lake as I write. Snow levels begin around 6-7000′ and will rise to about 9000′ later this morning. Snow totals thru tonight will be in the 3-5 range above 9000′ for areas along the Crest. I will have a breakdown for each resort tomorrow.
Tomorrow
Snow levels lowering to 7000′ overnight and rising tomorrow to about 8000′. Snow totals above 9000′ in the 3-5 range for Palisades, Sugar bowl and Kirkwood.
Tomorrow Night its Go Time
Snow levels lowering to 4-6000′ with Winter Storm Warnings a given. 1-2 feet likely by Saturday morning with another 1-2 feet throughout the day for Crest mountains Palisades, Kirkwood and Sugar Bowl.
Storm totals for the east side, 1-2 feet likely for Mt Rose and Heavenly. Dodge Ridge and Donner Ski Ranch, to the west should be in the same ballpark.
Utah and Colorado
Ok, the storm on our Long-Range for Utah and Colorado is moving up on the GFS model and is now running just a day late. That system will arrive in Utah Saturday night and NW Colorado by Sunday morning. The timing could change and hopefully move up even more.
This part of the storm is from the AR that is hitting California. You may remember last week’s post where I compared the charts from last cycle to this cycle. This demonstrates the cycling pattern. We have our AR and we have a strong system in Canada (circled). We did not forecast this storm for Lake Tahoe because it missed to the north last time. When will this part of the pattern return? January.
Here they are take a look.
Cycle length
This is a long pattern between 55-65 days. It is similar to the 21-22 cycle year where the cycle length was 64 days. During that season, there were two distinct patterns within the pattern. We had a regular pattern, where storms moved from the PNW southeast thru Utah and Colorado, and we had the “northern part of the pattern” where storms moved thru the PNW east, staying along and north of the US/Canada border.
This pattern is similar, and we won’t know if it will remain the same until we get through these next couple of weeks. When you look at the Long-Range Forecast Predictions for December, you don’t see many Utah and Colorado storms on there. This is because of the northern part of the pattern. That will flip around mid-December, and the Active Pattern will return for the Sierra and Rockies. In fact, if I am right on this pattern, from Christmas until late January should be very good–as long as we have the right teleconnection help.
If we get help from the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Artic Oscillation (AO) during the Northern Pattern, we can get bonus storms, as the whole pattern is amplified. All we need from the AO is neutral conditions, at the least, with an MJO that is in phase 6-7 or 8. Itis a plus to have strong negative AO with the aforementioned MJO phases.
Lastly, if we get agreement from the AO and MJO during the Active Pattern, look out. Then we will have a Trifecta like we had in the 19-20 season, where we had 60 inches in 5 days in Summit and Eagle counties, in February 20. I can’t believe it has been that long.
Predictions Summary
This is what we do at FutureSnow. We specialize in the long-range forecast so you can plan a ski or snowboard trip around powder. It is amazing to see this chart below, from last year. Now admittedly, I cherry picked this part of the chart that had only one bust, but it demonstrates the possibilities of weather prediction for the future. You can pick a flight, hotel, car etc. and not have to pay “last minute” prices chasing a storm 3 days out.
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Here is the current list for upcoming storms. I will go into more detail about this list next post.
Thank you for reading the blog and as always if you have any questions, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co. We have received many great questions, and it is a pleasure to answer them, so don’t hesitate to ask.
