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Heavy Snow Tonight for Tahoe, Utah tomorrow, Colorado Sunday

By November 22, 2024No Comments

Nov 22, 2024

Daily Snow Stake 

Revelstoke Forecast Stevens Pass Forecast Mt Bachelor Forecast Sugar Bowl Forecast

GFS Surface, GFS All Snow thru Thanksgiving 

3-Day Totals from FutureSnow and National Weather Service

     

Event Snowfall Totals (meteograms)

  

Forecast Summary

Sugar Bowl Instagram

We had good numbers with the first wave with Sugar Bowl coming in at 16″ and Palisades was the runner up with 10. It will be warm with a little bit of wind today, before the next round comes in this afternoon.  Snow levels will be around 8500′ and will lower to 7000′ by 6pm.  The bulk of the storm will be tonight thru tomorrow and will drop 2-3 feet above 9000′ with areas along the Crest faring the best.

Today

Warm with moderate winds in the 20-30 mph range gusting to 50 mph.  Snow levels lowering to 7000′ overnight and rising tomorrow to about 8000′.  Snow totals above 9000′ in the 3-5 range for Palisades, Sugar bowl and Kirkwood.  Below is the composite reflectivity from the GFS to give you a sense of the timing.

Thru Wednesday midday.  

Tonight

Snow levels lowering to 4-6000′ with Winter Storm Warnings a given.  1-2 feet likely by Saturday morning with another 1-2 feet throughout the day for Crest mountains Palisades, Kirkwood and Sugar Bowl

Storm totals for the east side, 1-2 feet likely for Mt Rose and Heavenly. Dodge Ridge and Donner Ski Ranch, to the west should be in the same ballpark.

Utah and Colorado

The timing of this storm looks pretty similar to yesterday but has improved a little more.  The system will arrive in Utah Saturday morning or early afternoon.  NW Colorado tomorrow night with the rest of Colorado hitting early Sunday.   I will have the details tomorrow morning.

Last time thru

 

from yesterday

Cycle length

This is a long pattern between 55-65 days.  It is similar to the 21-22 cycle year where the cycle length was 64 days.  During that season, there were two distinct patterns within the pattern.  We had a regular pattern, where storms moved from the PNW southeast thru Utah and Colorado, and we had the “northern part of the pattern” where storms moved thru the PNW east, staying along and north of the US/Canada border. 

This pattern is similar, and we won’t know if it will remain the same until we get through these next couple of weeks.  When you look at the Long-Range Forecast Predictions for December, you don’t see many Utah and Colorado storms on there.  This is because of the northern part of the pattern.  That will flip around mid-December, and the Active Pattern will return for the Sierra and Rockies.  In fact, if I am right on this pattern, from Christmas until late January should be very good–as long as we have the right teleconnection help.

If we get help from the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Artic Oscillation (AO) during the Northern Pattern, we can get bonus storms, as the whole pattern is amplified.  All we need from the AO is neutral conditions, at the least, with an MJO that is in phase 6-7 or 8.  Itis a plus to have strong negative AO with the aforementioned MJO phases. 

Lastly, if we get agreement from the AO and MJO during the Active Pattern, look out.  Then we will have a Trifecta like we had in the 19-20 season, where we had 60 inches in 5 days in Summit and Eagle counties, in February 20.  I can’t believe it has been that long.

Predictions Summary

This is what we do at FutureSnow.  We specialize in the long-range forecast so you can plan a ski or snowboard trip around powder.  It is amazing to see this chart below, from last year.  Now admittedly, I cherry picked this part of the chart that had only one bust, but it demonstrates the possibilities of weather prediction for the future.  You can pick a flight, hotel, car etc. and not have to pay “last minute” prices chasing a storm 3 days out.  

We are trying to increase our Facebook presence and especially followers.  We are behind the 8 ball a little, because we are late to the party.  So please introduce us to your friends and family who love what we love.

Here is the current list for upcoming storms.  I will go into more detail about this list next post.

Thank you for reading the blog and as always if you have any questions, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co.  We have received many great questions, and it is a pleasure to answer them, so don’t hesitate to ask.

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