Nov 13, 2024 6am
Daily Snow Stake
Surface and All Snow thru Nov 19th
Summary
That was a nice little storm that came through Colorado and dropped about what we expected. On the high end, Breckenridge had about 7, Vail and Winter Park 5, Eldora, Beaver Creek and A-Basin about 3. In Utah, Snowbird and Alta around 8, Solitude 4, and Park City/Canyons and Snowbasin about 2. Our teleconnection strength is at its minimum, with both the MJO and AO in neutral, so not bad considering the other influences.
Second Wave hits today in the Pacific Northwest and Lake Tahoe tonight. The model guidance is looking a little less bullish that it did earlier in the week. This is an atmospheric river (AR) that brings warm tropical moisture to the system and has that tail of moisture that you can see on the infrared satellite view above.
AR’s repeat, although not necessarily in the same spot. This cycle it is hitting Washington/Oregon, next cycle it could hit California or the Gulf of Alaska depending on the teleconnection alignment. You can get a lot of snow, but the downside is warm temps.
Northern Cascades, 3-6 for Crystal and Mt Baker. Snow levels will be pretty high in the southern Cascades, around 6000 ft, but you can expect 2-4 of heavy snow above that level for Mt Hood, and better numbers for Mt Bachelor, 3-5 to 4-8 likely.
In Lake Tahoe, not much doing today, 1-3 for some spots tonight.
Third Wave Thursday Night
The 3rd wave is now looking like it will hit Thursday night. It’s still looking like the strongest wave, as of now, I would say 4-8 for areas along the Crest at the Lake and not much for the PNW. More deets manana.
LONG-RANGE TEST FORECAST +/- 2 days tolerance (Made October 15th)
October 29th, Tahoe, Utah and Colorado Verified
November 2 and 4th (2 Waves), Utah and Colorado Verified
November 8-9th, Utah and Colorado Verified 2 Early
November 13th, Pacific Northwest Verified
November 17th, Utah and Colorado On GFS on Time, Weak
November 22nd, Utah and Colorado On GFS 3 Days Early
December 3rd, Utah and Colorado Not in Range
Thank you for reading the blog and as always if you have any questions, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co. We have received many great questions, and it is a pleasure to answer them, so don’t hesitate to ask.
