Posted September 19, 2023
New Pattern Evolving
The models are just beginning to reach into October, as the first storm we have been talking about, October 6th, is showing up a little early. The beginning of the system doesn’t reach the west coast until 252 hours, so a lot will change. This first storm is just for fun, the real fun begins much later as we move into winter, but it is part of the new pattern that I have been working on.
Speaking on the new pattern, it is encouraging to see storms setting up in the Gulf of Alaska, similar to last year. This time of year, the jet stream is way up in Canada, but is beginning to capitulate and eventually drop. The storms that are hitting Alyeska Ski resort now, near the Gulf of Alaska, will become the storms in November and December that will hit the ski resorts of the West. Here is an animation of the storm systems we are tracking.
The key to this season is in the track of these storms. It is too early to tell the final track, but what we are seeing now is encouraging for the Pacific Northwest, Utah and Colorado. Lake Tahoe is on the border as we stand now. I do think it will be wet, but we still need to see how the track sets up in October, along with temperatures. El Nino years tend to be warmer for Tahoe, so we can have above average precipitation at the Lake with less snow.
Atmospheric River Events
It is a certainty that there will be at least a few big Atmospheric River (AR) events affecting Lake Tahoe and the west coast. We are going to try our luck at predicting when they will occur.
Atmospheric rivers tap into moisture hundreds of miles away from the storm center, often called the Pineapple Express, these storms get their energy from the tropics.
There have already been quite a few AR events in the Gulf of Alaska, by the end of October I will put together an AR chart that will plot when and where. The “where” will be a region, as atmospheric rivers repeat, but not always in the same location. It is common to have an AR hit the PNW in one cycle and move to California in the next. They are pretty regular, within a day or two from cycle to cycle. Below are some examples of AR’s the last few years. Click to enlarge.
Here is a recent AR from August, first the surface chart followed by the 500 mb chart. When will this AR repeat?
Possible Hurricane Dates (prediction date May 19th)
Below are the updated predictions for possible hurricanes using our long-range prediction formula.
Aug 12-17 Pacific Storm—–Verified Hurricane Hilary
Aug 30-Sept 6 Florida—–Verified Hurricane Idalia
Sept 26-Oct 3 Florida (added Sept 4th)
Sept 27- Oct 5 Hawaii
Sept 30-Oct 3rd Yucatan
Sept 30-Oct 5 Pacific Storm
Oct 4-12 Possible Return of Hilary
You can find the original post May 19th, and all Hurricane posts on this page—most recent posts appear first. https://futuresnow.co/hurricane-forecast-2023/
Thanks for reading the blog! If you have any questions feel free to comment below or email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co
