Spreadsheet Day and Pattern Discussion

Jan 7, 2025

View of 10 Mile Range from FutureSnow Headquarters.  Moderate snow falling over Breckenridge

 

GFS thru Jan 14th

This model run displays all precipitation by type.

GFS 24 hr Snowfall thru Jan 14

This model run shows snowfall over a 24-hour period.

Euro and GFS Total Snow thru Jan 13th (click/animate)

This model shows total accumulation from each system throughout the period selected.

Pattern Discussion

This is a bird’s eye view of the cycling pattern as recorded by snowfall.  We are in cycle 3 of this year’s pattern and we are coming up on one of the holes in the pattern.  When you look at the upper third of the chart, those numbers are back in October and September so there isn’t much precipitation data because the jet stream had not dropped at that point.  What we do at this point of the pattern is project each cycle based on the storms that were present on the 500 mb and surface charts, then project where they will be in future cycles. 

The red box inside the blue box gave us a clue in the second cycle that there might be storms that will “fill in the hole” in the next cycle, and that is exactly what we did.  Three to four years ago we would have missed these storms. 

It is still a gamble, because these storms were weak last cycle and appear to be weak to moderate on the GFS presently, but this extends the Active Part of the Pattern, even though we are in that Northwest Flow pattern now.   What will happen next cycle?  That is what we are working on now.

Back tracking a little bit, looking at the second third the storms have also filled in a little more–the MJO helped a little but was basically neutral most of the time.  This gives us valuable data to improve our storm forecasting in the upcoming cycle.  This is why we don’t go out too far on the Predictions chart, because we don’t want to miss something–note, we can project, though, based on the data at the time all the way out to summer. 

Free Snow Concierge–Remember, the Long-Range Forecast Predictions can be projected out for the rest of the season.  We don’t release them because we like to “fine tune” the dates of storms; especially because we dial in the forecast by just 1 day’s tolerance.  You can email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co anytime to take advantage of this free service.  We can tell you when and where to go and give you a personalized forecast for your trip.  

 

Snow Totals over the last 10 Days

Upcoming Storms

Scattered snow showers today in Colorado as the system moves out.  There is a clipper system moving thru on Wednesday night and Thursday that will add to the totals, that is one of the systems we talked about above. 

Friday thru Sunday

Then a bigger system hits the Pacific Northwest Friday dropping decent numbers in the northern Cascades with minor amounts in the southern ranges.  That system will move southeast hitting Utah on time on the 11th, and Colorado the 11/12th.  This storm closes out the 12/10 predictions with good totals for all mountains in Utah and Colorado in the 4-8 range with the high side of 8-16.  

New to FutureSnow?

If you are new to FutureSnow check out this page using the link in purple.   It will help to explain some of the terminology you will be reading on our blog, along with our methodology using the Cycling Weather Pattern.  Thanks for joining our Team!

 

Thank you for reading the blog and as always if you have any questions, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co.