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Forecast Blog

Still Going….and Going

By April 13, 2022One Comment

Mt Bachelor  Big Sky  Vail  Powderhorn  Steamboat  Beaver Creek    Snowmass

Summary

What a storm, it has over-delivered with impressive totals, more will be added today.  In the Pacific Northwest, where all of this started, lingering snow showers will continue through Thursday.  Not much for the northern Cascades, a few inches today and tomorrow, but Timberline and Mt Bachelor will add 4-8 today and a couple/three tomorrow.

Tahoe refires tomorrow with a Pacific storm that will bring 8-12, for some spots beginning tonight, through Friday morning.  This is another sign of the switch in patterns.  You can see the flow has changed in the North American Model above. 

In Utah, snow continues today with another 3-5, to top off, before the storm moves out.  Colorado will have snow showers today, mainly along the divide, with another 3-5 as well.

I am sorry for the poor quality of the blog the last couple of days, I have been in a remote area with poor internet access and had to resort to posting on my phone, which is very difficult.  I was able to do a lot of work on upcoming pattern storms though, to finish out the year. 

This Cycle is starting off with a bang, putting up the best numbers, for this storm, through all cycles.  So, if that is any indication….

Forecast

Above is the GFS model through roughly the 24th.  I posted this model because you can see the next few systems coming up that I discus below.  Next is the U-Storm then the Trifecta, both are showing up.  After those storms, the GFS is a little murky.

PNW

In the Pacific Northwest, lingering snow showers will continue through Thursday.  Temperatures in the mid 20’s with light winds 5-10 mph.  For the northern Cascades, 1-3 inches today and tomorrow, but Timberline and Mt Bachelor will add 4-8 today and a couple/three tomorrow.

TAHOE

Pacific moisture arrives after midnight tonight bringing 4-8 for areas along the crest–Sugar Bowl, Palisades and Kirkwood.  Snow levels will be around 7000 ft Friday night dropping to around 6000 ft by morning.  Thursday will be windy with 30 mph gusts at lake level, with gusts topping 50 at the summit.  It will snow throughout the day adding 2-6 and another 2-4 Thursday night before exiting early Friday morning.

UTAH

Snow today with high temperatures in the low 20’s.  Wind will be in the negative numbers, as low as -10, due to wind speeds between 15-20, with 25 mph gusts.  Expect another 2-4 today with the storm exiting tonight.  The Pacific moisture from Tahoe will swing by Thursday night with light totals 1-3.

COLORADO

Expect a few more inches this morning and afternoon for areas along I-70, with higher totals along the divide.  High temperatures today will be in the lower 20’s with moderate winds 10-15 mph. 

There will be much higher winds for Arapahoe Basin and Loveland as the storm moves by.  Expect up to 50 mph gusts with snow totals in the 2-4 range today with another 1-3 tonight, possibly more with the help of upslope orographic lift.  

Upcoming Pattern Storms through June

April 16-18 U-Storm This storm is the first wave of the Trifecta and has hit all 3 cycles.  Last cycle was puny in size and strength, due to the double barrel high pressure, but still hit.  Cycle 2 was epic with over 2 ft in PNW, Colorado and Utah. Cycle 1 was warm with rain in CO and UT.

April 22-24 Trifecta 2 waves: Rain cycle 1 for PNW, between 10-18″ for Colorado resorts, over 2 feet for Utah’s Cottonwoods.  Cycle 2:  Crystal 30, Snowbird 32, and Crested Butte 31.  Cycle 3 Mt Hood (Timberline) Alta 7, Vail 7

April 28-29 This storm hit in Cycles 1 and 2 and was 2 days late in Cycle 3.  Cycle 2 had rain for the PNW

May 5 (Tahoe AR Oct 25) Epic 100″ week in Cycle 2 with 39″ 1-day total in Cycle 1. However, in Cycle 3 the storm was caught up in the double-barrel high and that pushed the storm up in Canada.

May 7-8 Good storm all three cycles for Colorado and Utah with double-digit totals for all 3 Cycles with Cycle 2 the winner.

May 13-14 Storm hit Colorado all 3 cycles and missed north of Utah in Cycle 1

May 17 Missed Utah and Colorado to the north in Cycle 1, but hit in both Cycle 2-3

May 20-21 Last storm of Active West Small system due to the weakening Active West pattern and transition to the Northern Pattern.  Hit in all 3 cycles for Utah and Colorado

June 5-6 AR 4th Straight for Seattle?

 

One Comment

  • Daniel Franz says:

    Hi Mike,

    I am wondering if you would have any rough estimates for weather that might be coming through the western CO/ eastern UT area between 4/25 – 5/1. I appreciate the work you put into your posts but looking to see if you can offer any additional clarity or if we are still a little far out. I live in Steamboat and am an avid reader (weather nerd) and have really enjoyed your posts this season. If you can offer any heads up it would be greatly appreciated.

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