Storm on Track, Improving

Posted May 9, 7:06 am MT 6:06 PT

Snow Stake Cams

MSLP Surface Chart thru May 12

All Snow

Surface Temperature, Total Precipitation, Aspen Blended Model

Forecast Discussion

The storm is on track and has strengthened since yesterday. Total precipitation is up about 3 tenths of an inch the big key is the timing of the storm with the cold air.

We did not get the Canadian air that I was hoping for, due to the storm being cut off. The jetstream to our north is blocking the cold Canadian air. Nevertheless, yesterday I posted snowfall range from 2 to 12 inches, today I’m going to raise that to 4 to 12.

Today

Warm and sunny today with a high around 46, with light winds, but occasional gusts around 25 mph. Great day to harvest some corn.
There are a couple of small waves will come through tonight and tomorrow with some thunderstorms possible.

Wednesday

We will have a morning low temp around the freezing mark as another small wave passes that could bring a few snow showers through lunchtime.

Off and on rain showers likely tomorrow with possibly a thunderstorm. Winds will increase in the afternoon with the approaching storm.

The main system arrives overnight, around midnight, in southern Colorado moving northeast. The temperature is the key to the snow totals for Thursday morning.

Thursday and Friday 4-12 inches possible

Thursday morning should be good, with fresh sn0w, likely somewhere in the 3-5 range, with snow throughout the day, hopefully heavy at times, with base temps only in the upper 30’s. Upper mountain temps around 30. Moderate winds between 15-25 mph with gusts in the mid 30’s.

Scattered snow showers in the morning Friday, with moderate winds. Morning low of 29 rising to around 40 for a high in late in the day.

Thursday System Last 4 Cycles (from Sunday)

This storm is completely cut-off from the jet stream, which is consistent with the past 4 cycles. Below is the projected jet stream map for Thursday. You can see the jet stream is flowing around a rather large Low-pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska, stays in Canada and flows around another Low-pressure system south of Greenland.