Posted May 10, 7:06 am MT 6:06 PT
Cycle Comparison
MSLP Surface Chart thru May 12
All Snow
Total Precipitation, Aspen Blended Model, Upper Air, Surface Air, 5-Day Total Snow
Forecast Discussion
The storm we have been talking about the last two weeks is finally arriving this afternoon. It will start out as rain before changing over to snow tonight. We have weak inversion that will persist through Friday. That is making this forecast difficult. We are going to ride the edge of the rain/snow line and hopefully it will be all snow. There is some really cold air between the 700 mb and 500 mb levels. 700 is 31 degrees overnight tonight and 500 is 7 degrees, so East Wall Al (13,050 ft).
This storm is pretty cool, if only it was actually cooler (temp). Above is the 500 mb flow. Since the storm is cut-off from the flow and we have a large ridge in the west (first time since October), the storm moves through Colorado and then retrogrades back through Colorado and towards the west coast, before being absorbed by the Pacific trough with the collapsing ridge.
This will be fun to watch to see if it actually happens, if it does, then we will have snow chances throughout the weekend with colder temps once the inversion dissipates on Friday.
Today
Here we go, first wave today as the picture is beginning to become clearer. Temperatures will rise to the low 50’s today for the divide, and low 60’s for the valleys. Winds are from the southeast increasing as the storm approaches in early afternoon. Wind speeds between 20-25 mph with 35 mph gusts.
Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, after 2 pm, and those showers should continue through the evening changing to snow after midnight. Snowfall amounts before the lifts open should be in the 2-4/3-5 range.
Thursday
Morning temperature of 29, snow showers with thunder possible. Northwest winds between 15-20 with gusts up to 35 mph. Snowfall amounts in the 3-5 range during the day and another 3-5 overnight. This will be heavy wet snow. Overnight low around 30.
Friday
Snow continues, although I don’t have a good grasp yet on the totals, I’ll say 3-5 for now. Temperatures continue to be right on the edge until Friday night when the inversion is eliminated.
Open Resorts
California
Palisades, Heavenly, Mammoth
Utah
Snowbird, Solitude and Park City
Colorado
Breckenridge, Arapahoe Basin, Copper Mountain, Winter Park
Forecasted Areas
Pacific Northwest Cascade Mountains
Crystal Mountain, Mount Hood Meadows, Timberline, 49 Degrees North, Bachelor, Mt Baker,
Lake Tahoe Sierra Mountains
Heavenly, Palisades Tahoe, Kirkwood, Dodge Ridge, Donner Ski Ranch
Utah Wasatch Mountains
Alta, Park City, Deer Valley, Brighton, Snowbird, Brian Head
Colorado Rocky Mountains
Aspen, Aspen Highlands, Snowmass, Vail, Beaver Creek, Winter Park, Keystone, Arapahoe Basin, Breckenridge, Copper Mountain, Powderhorn, Ski Cooper, Telluride, Crested Butte, Silverton, Wolf Creek, Eldora, Loveland
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