Posted May 11, 6:23 am MT 5:23 PT
MSLP Surface Chart
All Snow
4-Day Total Precipitation, High Resolution Model, Aspen Blended Model, Upper Air, Surface Air, 500 mb Flow (Click to Animate)
Forecast Discussion (Video Release)
What a good start to the storm with around 6 at Arapahoe Basin and 4 at Breck. There should be a couple more waves of snow today with more tonight. Tomorrow first chair could have 6-12 of fresh snow, with powder on the upper mountains.
The system is cut-off from the flow and will pass through Colorado and retrograde back through on its way towards the Pacific Northwest (see 500 mb chart above). That will give us snow throughout the weekend and into next week. We have good temperatures, with the exception of Saturday, where we could have lower elevation rain and upper mountain snow.
Video of the LRC Cycle Comparison 22-23
This took a little more work than usual, because I couldn’t find a good format to compare the three cycles. I finally settled on trimming each cycles width so that they could all fit on the screen.
The video moves at a slow pace, but even with the slow pace, it is hard to see everything on the screen, so use the slider to move at your own pace.
I am really proud of this video because first, it shows the fluctuation of the amplified pattern in each of the 3 cycles. Second, the storms are closely synchronized. With each frame advance, it is a quarter day. You can see how the storms in each cycle closely follow the same track with slightly different timing. Lastly, with the amplification, you can see how much the size and scope of the storms change. Especially the California storms. The amplification drops the storms to a more linear flow into the Sierra.
Forecast
Today
Snow showers with thunder snow possible. Northwest winds between 15-20 with gusts up to 30 mph. Snowfall amounts in the 4-8 range during the day and another 3-5 overnight. Overnight low around 30.
Friday thru Sunday
Scattered snow showers continue with 1-3 expected on Friday, with base high temperature around 38. Moderate winds between 10-15 with 25 mph gusts.
Saturday could be a mixed bag, with upper mountain snow and base level rain. Looking at the upper air chart above, we should have snow around mid-mountain at both A-Basin and Breck. Check back tomorrow morning, as the temperature guidance has been fluctuating with the retrograding storm.
Sunday, we should have another round of snow. Details manana.
Open Resorts
California
Palisades, Heavenly, Mammoth
Utah
Snowbird, Solitude and Park City
Colorado
Breckenridge, Arapahoe Basin, Copper Mountain, Winter Park
Forecasted Areas
Pacific Northwest Cascade Mountains
Crystal Mountain, Mount Hood Meadows, Timberline, 49 Degrees North, Bachelor, Mt Baker,
Lake Tahoe Sierra Mountains
Heavenly, Palisades Tahoe, Kirkwood, Dodge Ridge, Donner Ski Ranch
Utah Wasatch Mountains
Alta, Park City, Deer Valley, Brighton, Snowbird, Brian Head
Colorado Rocky Mountains
Aspen, Aspen Highlands, Snowmass, Vail, Beaver Creek, Winter Park, Keystone, Arapahoe Basin, Breckenridge, Copper Mountain, Powderhorn, Ski Cooper, Telluride, Crested Butte, Silverton, Wolf Creek, Eldora, Loveland
–
