What a good start for Cycle four with heavy snow in the Pacific Northwest (33 Mt Hood, 30 Crystal). Now it’s Tahoe-Time with heavy snow overnight last night and snow all day today thru Saturday. The heavier Pacific moisture will make it to Utah by tonight.
The Snow Show continues for the Cascades today with scattered snow showers through Saturday with an average of 3-5 each day for Crystal, 1-2 for Mt Baker and Stevens Pass. For the southern Cascades, Mt Hood 1-3 today with maybe an inch or two on Friday and Saturday before a larger wave brings 3-5 Saturday night.
Generally, moderate winds over the forecast period between 10-20. Temperatures will be in the high 20’s for the north, and around 30 for the south.
Snow today thru Saturday day with 4-7 today for Palisades and Kirkwood. There will be a lull on Friday before the next system moves in Friday afternoon and evening. Friday night, another 4-7 before the lifts start on Saturday morning with another 4-8 throughout the day.
Strong winds Thursday with 30 mph mid-mountain gusts and 50 mph gusts up top. Snow levels between 6-7000 ft. Friday night and Saturday snow levels around 5800 rising to around 7000+ on Saturday. Again strong winds up top with likely lift closures and rain likely at the base with a mix above. Bring your goggle scrapers!
Light snow today for Alta, Brighton, and Snowbird with moderate winds between 10-15 and temperatures in the upper 20’s at base. I am expecting 1-3 today with higher amounts overnight between 4-8. The system moves out Friday morning with bluebird skies by afternoon and light winds.
Upcoming Pattern Storms through June
Below are storms in the pattern that are significant and have repeated at least twice. We have a long cycle length of 64 days, that is the second longest length in the last 20 years. The average cycle length, over the last 20 years is 53 days. The shortest was 38 days and the longest was 75. The long cycle length has a possible connection to the following years El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Sixty four percent of the time, after a significant jump in cycle length, the following year was an El Nino year.
April 16-18 U-Storm This storm is the first wave of the Trifecta and has hit all 3 cycles. Last cycle was puny in size and strength, due to the double barrel high pressure, but still hit. Cycle 2 was epic with over 2 ft in PNW, Colorado and Utah. Cycle 1 was warm with rain in CO and UT.
April 22-24 Trifecta 2 waves: Rain cycle 1 for PNW, between 10-18″ for Colorado resorts, over 2 feet for Utah’s Cottonwoods. Cycle 2: Crystal 30, Snowbird 32, and Crested Butte 31. Cycle 3 Mt Hood (Timberline) Alta 7, Vail 7
April 28-29 This storm hit in Cycles 1 and 2 and was 2 days late in Cycle 3. Cycle 2 had rain for the PNW
May 7-8 Good storm all three cycles for Colorado and Utah with double-digit totals for all 3 Cycles with Cycle 2 the winner. If you are looking for a powder day in May, this is the one to watch. Arapahoe Basin time?
May 13-14 Storm hit Colorado all 3 cycles and missed to the north of Utah, in Cycle 1
May 17 Missed Utah and Colorado to the north in Cycle 1, but hit in both Cycle 2-3
May 20-21 Last storm of Active West Small system due to the weakening Active West pattern and transition to the Northern Pattern. Hit in all 3 cycles for Utah and Colorado
June 5-6 AR 4th Straight for Seattle?
Updated Prediction Chart