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Taos 2-3 Feet by Manana

By November 7, 2024No Comments

Nov 7, 2024

Daily Snow Stake 

Just a quick update.

High Resolution Thru Tonight

HRRR All Snow, All Snow Let It Go, GFS British Columbia/Alberta,  Click/Animate

   

Colorado and New Mexico

The storm continues to spin in southern Colorado and northeast New Mexico that will favor Wolf Creek, Monarch, maybe Crested Butte, Taos and Ski Santa Fe.  Taos and Ski Santa Fe are going to get hammered with 2-3 feet by Tomorrow evening.  

It is less certain for Wolf Creek, but I expect 4-8, at least, with more potentially tomorrow.  Other notables are Crested Butte and Monarch.  Heavy snow in Monarch as I write this.  

Resort Openings

Eldora opens Today with Breck, Copper and Winter Park opening tomorrow.  

 

from yesterday

Pattern/Forecast Discussion

Day 31 Cycle 1

I think you get the picture by all of the charts above that a lot of snow is on the way.  All of the storms on the Long-Range test chart are rolling thru, just about right on time, so I feel good about where we are going.  The problem with this amplified pattern, right out of the gate as we start the first cycle, is that there are extra storms because of the amplification.  We will have to be really diligent when we make our first official prediction chart for the next cycle. 

Let’s glance at the teleconnections.  The first chart is the Artic Oscillation or AO.  We started the cycle in the negative, about Oct 7th, and charged to strong positive by Oct 22nd.   Meanwhile the Madden Jullian Oscillation (second chart) or MJO, started the month in neutral condtions and around Oct 18th, entered phase 5.  

These conditions, the AO and the MJO were not favorable for amplification.  By Oct 26 though, the MJO was in a favorable position and the AO was not blocking by being strong positive.  The AO continues to be neutral and is projected to remain neutral, paving the way for stronger storms over the next 10 days.

Forecast for Colorado

Scattered snow showers will remain for the northern mountains with perhaps another 1-3 or 2-4 before the system moves to the east and spins in the southern mountains.  Divide resorts A-Basin, Loveland and Eldora will fare a little better with 3-5.

San Juans

Taos, Silverton, Wolf Creek, and Telluride have 1-2 feet potential over the next 36 hours.  The models are getting some grasp of how the cutoff system will progress, but with cutoff storms, there is always uncertainty.  

Today

Wolf Creek 8-12, Telluride 8-12, Silverton 5-10, Purgatory 3-6, Taos 10-15,

LONG-RANGE TEST FORECAST +/- 2 days tolerance (Made October 15th)

October 29th, Tahoe, Utah and Colorado                           Verified

November 2 and 4th (2 Waves), Utah and Colorado        Verified

November 8-9th, Utah and Colorado                                  Verified 2 Early

November 13th, Pacific Northwest                                      On GFS, 1 Day Early

November 17th, Utah and Colorado                                   On GFS 1 Day Early

November 22nd, Utah and Colorado                                  On GFS on time

December 3rd, Utah and Colorado                                     Not in Range

Hurricane/Typhoon Watch

What we are doing with predicting hurricanes is ridiculous.  If these two storms hit their target locations this will be Back-to-Back-Exact–which is a new term.  It will also mark 8 accurately predicted Hurricanes.  This is the Active Part of the Pattern for hurricanes, and this time of year they will likely not be severe. 

These storms are related to Hurricane Helene and Typhoon Krathon that hit last cycle.  You can see how they align on the chart.

 

Thank you for reading the blog and as always if you have any questions, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co.  We have received many great questions, and it is a pleasure to answer them, so don’t hesitate to ask.

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