Nov 9, 2024
Daily Snow Stake
Forecast Summary
This has got to be the best cutoff storm ever. Like the energizer Bunny, it keeps going and going and will finally exit the area this afternoon–I think.
The next system, for the 13th (Pacific NW on Long-Range Chart), was looking great, until the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) entered into phase 1, and then “poof” it disappeared from the GFS.
The way that system was displayed by the GFS shouldn’t have been there anyway, according to the cycling pattern. Only because we were in an amplified pattern from the MJO, the models thought this storm would happen. The amplification has ended, and now “poof”, its gone.
It is a great example of what amplification can do, and it is something we will watch in future cycles to project, or slot that storm, if we think amplification is likely. Below is the phantom storm from the GFS.
Now we are back to a regular pattern and that storm will hit the Pacific Northwest, on time, on the 13th. Let’s take a look at the teleconnections.
Teleconnections
The Madden Julian Oscillation is currently in Phase 1 and is projected to go into neutral territory, in the next couple of days. The chart shows where the MJO has been (red line) with the dates indicated by number.
The phases are divided into 8 triangles to show where the phenomenon is located, and its strength, along the equator. The green line is the projected path that the ensemble GFS projects for the next 15 days, along with the spaghetti model projections from single runs.
It’s a little hard to understand. I found a better demonstration of the MJO from the Australian Goverments Bureau of Meteorology. Check out this animation below, this is the projected phase and location of the MJO beginning November 4th, through December 3rd.
When you think of the MJO, think of convective energy. The animation begins with above average strength of convective energy (brown shading) located in the western hemisphere, off of the African coast moving east (phase 8). This convective energy, when in phases 6, 7 and 8, add fuel to the storms coming off of the Pacific Ocean. The storms are visibly bigger and there are more of them.
That is a long-winded explanation of why the GFS storm for the 13th disappeared. Hopefully this give you a greater understanding of how important the MJO is to our weather.
GFS thru Nov 17th, GFS for BC and AB Canada, All Snow Let It Go, GFS 500mb Click/Animate
LONG-RANGE TEST FORECAST +/- 2 days tolerance (Made October 15th)
October 29th, Tahoe, Utah and Colorado Verified
November 2 and 4th (2 Waves), Utah and Colorado Verified
November 8-9th, Utah and Colorado Verified 2 Early
November 13th, Pacific Northwest On GFS, 1 Day Early
November 17th, Utah and Colorado On GFS 1 Day Early
November 22nd, Utah and Colorado On GFS on time
December 3rd, Utah and Colorado Not in Range
Thank you for reading the blog and as always if you have any questions, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co. We have received many great questions, and it is a pleasure to answer them, so don’t hesitate to ask.
