Dec 21 2024
Daily Snow Stakes
First, a Word from Canada
Huge storm is going to hit the PNW and Canadian resorts, Whistler Blackcomb, Powder Highway resorts Revelstoke, Kicking Horse, Panorama and Red Mountain Sunday thru the new year. 60-100 cm for Whistler, 40-60 cm for the Powder Highway.
Model Fun
Euro, Euro Ensemble, GFS and GFS Ensemble thru Jan 5th
Teleconnections
MJO Madden Julian Oscillation
The MJO is currently in Phase 5 and is projected to go neutral and then reemerge in Phase 7 around the 26th. Phase 7 will add energy to storms hitting the west.
AO Artic Oscillation
The AO is currently neutral and is projected to dip negative briefly the next few days. A deeply negative AO, -2 and lower, brings cold artic air to the west.
ENSO El Nino Southern Oscillation
ENSO is currently neutral and is projected to go into La Nina territory briefly then return to neutral by late spring. ENSO influences the position of the jet stream.
SIC Sea Ice Extent
SIC has an influence on artic outbreaks and is a sign of how strong the cycling pattern is in terms of overall strength of storms.
Long-Range Forecast from the European Ensemble
Whistler, Crystal, Lake Tahoe, Steamboat, Alta
Crystal Mountain is a little different, this is the total snow version thru the entire run vs each event. Let me know what you like in the comments section.
New to FutureSnow?
If you are new to FutureSnow check out this page using the link in purple. It will help to explain some of the terminology you will be reading on our blog, along with our methodology using the Cycling Weather Pattern. Thanks for joining our Team!
Long Range Forecast Predictions
We are sitting at 88.8 % Accurate, which is along our historical average. The Active Pattern is just 5 days away from the storm that will move thru the Pacific Northwest, Lake Tahoe, Utah and Colorado Christmas Eve (PNW, Tahoe) Day (Utah) and Night (Colorado).
Average lead time between when the storms were predicted and when they hit is 23.37 days, which is quite a bit better than model guidance which maxes out at 14 days.
There will be a few storms moving through the Pacific Northwest and Canada between now and the Active Pattern beginning today. Another storm Sunday will hit the PNW and possibly Lake Tahoe and finally a third wave through the PNW and Canada on Monday the 23rd.
These charts are called Meteograms and are the combination of 50 different possible outcomes of the European ensemble. These charts give a since of the size and the scope of the incoming storm systems.
Looking at Alta, Steamboat and Lake Tahoe, you can see model agreement for the first two storms. The third storm has less agreement but should come into focus in the next few days. Next are the charts that follow are for Crystal Mountain, Mt Hood and Whistler Blackcomb. They are getting hammered over the next 10 days. Whistler is pretty much nonstop until the new year.
Thank you for reading the blog and as always if you have any questions, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co.
