Dec 22, 2024
Daily Snow Stakes
All Snow GFS and All Snow Hemisphere, 500 mb flow thru Jan 6
European and GFS Ensemble Total Snow
Total Snow thru Jan 5th by System
1st system thru Christmas, 2nd thru Dec 30, 3rd thru Jan 5
Active Pattern Discussion
We are moving into the Active Pattern, that for us in Utah and Colorado, are getting a little desperate. We talked towards the end of November that we would be hitting the “Ridge of Death”, and that pattern is thankfully, movin’ out. It’s “Go Time” now and really the only disappointment is the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation).
Most models predicted the MJO, around Dec 15th, would be in phase 6 at Christmas and move into 7 shortly after, matching the conditions last cycle. Well, that turned out to be fantasy land because we are currently neutral and the models now predict the MJO to emerge in Phase 7, which is good, but quickly return to neutral. This should give us a quick boost the first week of 2025.
We won’t know until next week if this projection will increase snowfall. Currently, the storm we have predicted for the Jan 3-4 is running late (1-2 Days). That system and the system projected for Jan 6th for Colorado could have the biggest impact from the MJO. There is a little lag from when the MJO gets cranking, before the fuel (moisture) gets pumped into the storm. This should be a good test to compare and contrast between the current and last cycle.
Teleconnections
MJO Madden Julian Oscillation
First chart is the current position, end of the blue line, and the right is the model projected path from where the first chart ends. We go into neutral, then emerge in phase 7 and gain strength as we enter phase 8. The farther away from the center the stronger.
AO Artic Oscillation
The AO is currently neutral and is projected to dip negative briefly the next few days. A deeply negative AO, -2 and lower, brings cold artic air to the west.
ENSO El Nino Southern Oscillation
ENSO is currently neutral and is projected to go into La Nina territory briefly then return to neutral by late spring. ENSO influences the position of the jet stream.
SIC Sea Ice Extent
SIC has an influence on artic outbreaks and is a sign of how strong the cycling pattern is, in terms of overall strength of storms.
Long-Range Forecast from the European Ensemble
Whistler, Crystal, Lake Tahoe, Steamboat, Alta
Crystal Mountain is a little different, this is the total snow version thru the entire run vs each event. Let me know what you like in the comments section.
New to FutureSnow?
If you are new to FutureSnow check out this page using the link in purple. It will help to explain some of the terminology you will be reading on our blog, along with our methodology using the Cycling Weather Pattern. Thanks for joining our Team!
Long Range Forecast Predictions
We are sitting at 88.8 % Accurate, which is along our historical average. The Active Pattern is just 5 days away from the storm that will move thru the Pacific Northwest, Lake Tahoe, Utah and Colorado Christmas Eve (PNW, Tahoe) Day (Utah) and Night (Colorado).
Average lead time between when the storms were predicted and when they hit is 23.37 days, which is quite a bit better than model guidance which maxes out at 14 days.
There will be a few storms moving through the Pacific Northwest and Canada between now and the Active Pattern beginning today. Another storm Sunday will hit the PNW and possibly Lake Tahoe and finally a third wave through the PNW and Canada on Monday the 23rd.
Thank you for reading the blog and as always if you have any questions, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co.
