Dec 22, 2024
Daily Snow Stakes
All Snow GFS thru Jan 6
European, Canadian, GFS Ensemble Total Snow, NAM is thru Dec 25
Total Snow thru Jan 5th by System
1st system thru Christmas, 2nd thru Dec 30, 3rd thru Jan 5
Long-Range Meteograms
Below are two different kinds of long-range forecasts from the European and GFS Ensemble runs. The first set of charts (11) show the waves of storms over the next 14 days. The snowfall amounts are kind of hard to read.
The last 7 charts are similar, but they show total snow on the graph below each resort. These show the projected average snowfall from each event. They give a better sense of how much snow will fall with each wave.
Note, Canadian resorts are in cm.
Forecast
Today PNW, Tomorrow Lake Tahoe, Christmas Eve Utah, Christmas Day Colorado
The storm we have been waiting for, really since December began for Utah and Colorado, moves in tonight in the Pacific Northwest and will work its way down the coast arriving at Lake Tahoe by tomorrow.
It is the beginning of the active pattern, and we will have multiple waves over the next two weeks. The deepest totals will be in British Columbia and the PNW, where Whistler will be in the 60-100 cm (2-3 ft), Crystal Mountain and Mt Hood 3-5 ft. Lake Tahoe will be on the warm side, but above 8000 ft Kirkwood, Palisades and Sugar Bowl should be in the 1-3 feet range.
Both Utah and Colorado will have areas in the 1-2 ft range. The Cottonwood resorts Alta, Snowbird, and Brighton, along with Steamboat, Winter Park, Vail, Beaver Creek and resorts along the Divide. We will go into detail each waves numbers as we draw a little closer, but you can look at the Meteograms above to get an idea.
from yesterday
Active Pattern Discussion
We are moving into the Active Pattern, that for us in Utah and Colorado, are getting a little desperate. We talked towards the end of November that we would be hitting the “Ridge of Death”, and that pattern is thankfully, movin’ out. It’s “Go Time” now and really the only disappointment is the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation).
Most models predicted the MJO, around Dec 15th, would be in phase 6 at Christmas and move into 7 shortly after, matching the conditions last cycle. Well, that turned out to be fantasy land because we are currently neutral and the models now predict the MJO to emerge in Phase 7, which is good, but quickly return to neutral. This should give us a quick boost the first week of 2025.
We won’t know until next week if this projection will increase snowfall. Currently, the storm we have predicted for the Jan 3-4 is running late (1-2 Days). That system and the system projected for Jan 6th for Colorado could have the biggest impact from the MJO. There is a little lag from when the MJO gets cranking, before the fuel (moisture) gets pumped into the storm. This should be a good test to compare and contrast between the current and last cycle.
Teleconnections
MJO Madden Julian Oscillation
First chart is the current position, end of the blue line, and the right is the model projected path from where the first chart ends. We go into neutral, then emerge in phase 7 and gain strength as we enter phase 8. The farther away from the center the stronger.
AO Artic Oscillation
The AO is currently neutral and is projected to dip negative briefly the next few days. A deeply negative AO, -2 and lower, brings cold artic air to the west.
ENSO El Nino Southern Oscillation
ENSO is currently neutral and is projected to go into La Nina territory briefly then return to neutral by late spring. ENSO influences the position of the jet stream.
SIC Sea Ice Extent
SIC has an influence on artic outbreaks and is a sign of how strong the cycling pattern is, in terms of overall strength of storms.
Long-Range Forecast from the European Ensemble
Whistler, Crystal, Lake Tahoe, Steamboat, Alta
Crystal Mountain is a little different, this is the total snow version thru the entire run vs each event. Let me know what you like in the comments section.
New to FutureSnow?
If you are new to FutureSnow check out this page using the link in purple. It will help to explain some of the terminology you will be reading on our blog, along with our methodology using the Cycling Weather Pattern. Thanks for joining our Team!
Long Range Forecast Predictions
We are sitting at 88.8 % Accurate, which is along our historical average. The Active Pattern is just 5 days away from the storm that will move thru the Pacific Northwest, Lake Tahoe, Utah and Colorado Christmas Eve (PNW, Tahoe) Day (Utah) and Night (Colorado).
Average lead time between when the storms were predicted and when they hit is 23.37 days, which is quite a bit better than model guidance which maxes out at 14 days.
There will be a few storms moving through the Pacific Northwest and Canada between now and the Active Pattern beginning today. Another storm Sunday will hit the PNW and possibly Lake Tahoe and finally a third wave through the PNW and Canada on Monday the 23rd.
Thank you for reading the blog and as always if you have any questions, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co.
