Dec 24, 2024
Daily Snow Stakes
Total Snow Euro, thru Jan 6
I like the Euro because it has more snow! There are multiple waves moving through the next 2 weeks. Last night’s wave kicked it off with Loveland coming in around 6, most everywhere else had around 3″. Un Utah, Snowbasin had 4, Alta around 2-3 and Brighton 2.
4 Main Systems–Combined Snow Totals thru:
1st Chart Tomorrow Morning, 2nd 6pm Saturday, 3rd 6AM New Years Eve, 4th Jan 6th
Same thing, but animated with a click: GFS 24 hr, GFS Ensemble Total Snow
Next is the Infrared for the current storm thru this morning. You can see how the incoming storm is flowing, and last night’s storm exiting Colorado. You can see Loveland is the last to exit.
Forecast
Just a brief note about the pattern before the region forecasts. We are in the Active Pattern of the Pacific Storm flow that, depending on your device is either at the right or middle. You can see the storms in the Pacific flow and drop down the west coast forming a trough over the four corners states.
Here is a better view from the 500mb.
I expect similar totals that we had last time thru, even though we are not getting any help from the MJO at the present (currently neutral and projected to briefly enter phase 7 by Dec 27th). The totals should be similar because the storms are naturally a little stronger this time of year due to the stronger jet stream.
We may get a boost around Jan 2nd from the MJO, but I am not counting on it, as the MJO is trending weaker. Damn.
If you have checked the Predictions Tab recently you can see the next release ready–I will add those dates tomorrow.
PNW
Today, scattered snow showers throughout the Cascades with the heaviest totals around Mt Hood. Temps will start out warm and drop throughout the day. Tomorrow, the next wave moves in dropping 4-8 throughout the day and a foot to 16″ overnight for Mt Baker, Mt Hood, Crystal, and Mt Bachelor. In central Oregon and Washington resorts Hoodoo and Stevens Pass will be in the 5-10 range by Thursday morning.
Lake Tahoe
Warm storm with snow levels starting out around 7000 feet but will drop to 4000 feet by tonight. 6-12 likely today above 7000′ for Palisades, Kirkwood and Sugar Bowl with 4-8 likely for Homewood, Donner and Boreal.
Christmas Day Bluebird skies with at high of 35. Next system moves in on Thursday.
Utah
Today thru Christmas
The next wave moves in tonight and is pretty weak, but I still expect 3-5 for Alta and Snowbird, with 1-3 likely for Park City.
Thursday
A much stronger storm arrives, we should be in the ballpark of 6-12″ by first chair Friday morning at Cottonwood resorts Alta, Snowbird, Brighton and Solitude.
Friday thru Monday will have snow throughout with breaks in between waves. Around Friday afternoon should have a few intense bands of heavy snow off and on thru Saturday morning, so first chair Sat could be good.
Colorado
Christmas Day
We will have scattered snow showers on Christmas Day with small amounts. This wave will favor the southern mountains with possibly a San Juan Sneak. So, keep an eye on the forecast models. We will be updating the model charts above as warranted but expect 4-8 for Telluride and Wolf Creek.
Thursday and Friday
Then it’s the waiting game until Saturday morning with a decent wave will hitting overnight. This first wave will favor the central and norther mountains with possibly a San Juan Sneak. So, keep an eye on the forecast models. We will be updating as warranted.
Saturday Morning
Early Saturday a stronger wave hits, and if it is like last cycle, Vail had 12″, Beaver Creek, Copper and Breck had 10.
Long-Range Meteograms
Below are two different kinds of long-range forecasts from the European and GFS Ensemble runs. The first set of charts (11) show the waves of storms over the next 14 days. The snowfall amounts are kind of hard to read.
The last 7 charts are similar, but they show total snow on the graph below each resort. These show the projected average snowfall from each event. They give a better sense of how much snow will fall with each wave.
Note, Canadian resorts are in cm.
Forecast
Today PNW, Tomorrow Lake Tahoe, Christmas Eve Utah, Christmas Day Colorado
The storm we have been waiting for, really since December began for Utah and Colorado, moves in tonight in the Pacific Northwest and will work its way down the coast arriving at Lake Tahoe by tomorrow.
It is the beginning of the active pattern, and we will have multiple waves over the next two weeks. The deepest totals will be in British Columbia and the PNW, where Whistler will be in the 60-100 cm (2-3 ft), Crystal Mountain and Mt Hood 3-5 ft. Lake Tahoe will be on the warm side, but above 8000 ft Kirkwood, Palisades and Sugar Bowl should be in the 1-3 feet range.
Both Utah and Colorado will have areas in the 1-2 ft range. The Cottonwood resorts Alta, Snowbird, and Brighton, along with Steamboat, Winter Park, Vail, Beaver Creek and resorts along the Divide. We will go into detail each waves numbers as we draw a little closer, but you can look at the Meteograms above to get an idea.
from yesterday
Active Pattern Discussion
We are moving into the Active Pattern, that for us in Utah and Colorado, are getting a little desperate. We talked towards the end of November that we would be hitting the “Ridge of Death”, and that pattern is thankfully, movin’ out. It’s “Go Time” now and really the only disappointment is the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation).
Most models predicted the MJO, around Dec 15th, would be in phase 6 at Christmas and move into 7 shortly after, matching the conditions last cycle. Well, that turned out to be fantasy land because we are currently neutral and the models now predict the MJO to emerge in Phase 7, which is good, but quickly return to neutral. This should give us a quick boost the first week of 2025.
We won’t know until next week if this projection will increase snowfall. Currently, the storm we have predicted for the Jan 3-4 is running late (1-2 Days). That system and the system projected for Jan 6th for Colorado could have the biggest impact from the MJO. There is a little lag from when the MJO gets cranking, before the fuel (moisture) gets pumped into the storm. This should be a good test to compare and contrast between the current and last cycle.
Teleconnections
MJO Madden Julian Oscillation
First chart is the current position, end of the blue line, and the right is the model projected path from where the first chart ends. We go into neutral, then emerge in phase 7 and gain strength as we enter phase 8. The farther away from the center the stronger.
AO Artic Oscillation
The AO is currently neutral and is projected to dip negative briefly the next few days. A deeply negative AO, -2 and lower, brings cold artic air to the west.
ENSO El Nino Southern Oscillation
ENSO is currently neutral and is projected to go into La Nina territory briefly then return to neutral by late spring. ENSO influences the position of the jet stream.
SIC Sea Ice Extent
SIC has an influence on artic outbreaks and is a sign of how strong the cycling pattern is, in terms of overall strength of storms.
Long-Range Forecast from the European Ensemble
Whistler, Crystal, Lake Tahoe, Steamboat, Alta
Crystal Mountain is a little different, this is the total snow version thru the entire run vs each event. Let me know what you like in the comments section.
New to FutureSnow?
If you are new to FutureSnow check out this page using the link in purple. It will help to explain some of the terminology you will be reading on our blog, along with our methodology using the Cycling Weather Pattern. Thanks for joining our Team!
Long Range Forecast Predictions
We are sitting at 88.8 % Accurate, which is along our historical average. The Active Pattern is just 5 days away from the storm that will move thru the Pacific Northwest, Lake Tahoe, Utah and Colorado Christmas Eve (PNW, Tahoe) Day (Utah) and Night (Colorado).
Average lead time between when the storms were predicted and when they hit is 23.37 days, which is quite a bit better than model guidance which maxes out at 14 days.
There will be a few storms moving through the Pacific Northwest and Canada between now and the Active Pattern beginning today. Another storm Sunday will hit the PNW and possibly Lake Tahoe and finally a third wave through the PNW and Canada on Monday the 23rd.
Thank you for reading the blog and as always if you have any questions, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co.
