Dec 4, 2024
Ridge Discussion
We are about halfway through the “ridge of death” and it feels like the South Park episode where the kids are trapped for about 30 minutes and thoughts of cannibalism begin. The storm around the 9-10 is still uncertain and the storm that should be there around the 15th is too far out to tell. There are good storms projected for the Pacific Northwest and Canada, so keep those locations in mind when we go through this again in January.
Don’t forget about our free Ski Concierge service. We can plan a trip around when it will snow in January thru May. All you have to do is email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co and we’ll set you up!
500 mb and Hemisphere 500 mb Let it Go
Blended Long-Range European snowfall charts–50 versions
Canada
PNW
Lake Tahoe
Utah and Colorado
Meteorological Winter Engaged
These next two animated GIFs of the surface GFS and the 10,000 ft view from the 500 millibar level show what is going on. The storms are flowing over the ridge off the west coast. Click to Animate GIFs
Watch them each a few times and you see why the storms stop are blocked in the west and open for the east. Because of the ridge, the storms enter along the Canadian coast instead of Washington or Oregon. Then they move across Canada and then hit the northeast (New England). This is part of this year’s pattern and will return around mid-January.
First Bust
The December 3rd storm for Utah and Colorado is a Bust and was a casualty of the ridge out west. It was a gamble to have that storm on the Long-Range Forecast Predictions because to put it simply, looking back I should have known better. That storm was just too far north to drop into Utah and Colorado even with a stronger jet stream. Live and learn.
Upcoming Storms
This next system is not on your long-range list. It is looking a little better than 50-50 at this point that it will happen. It hits the west coast with an Atmospheric River (AR) like setup and will move southeast through Idaho reaching Utah in the afternoon, on Sunday December 8th, and Colorado overnight. Below are the long-range model runs from the Euro Ensemble for Loveland, Aspen and Alta.
There are two charts for each location because the first chart that shows the timing but is a little confusing to read in terms of snowfall totals. The second chart, looking at the bottom graph and not the color bars, is the projected snowfall total for the entire event.
Looking at the Aspen chart it shows 1″ for the first wave (Dec 9-10), 6″ for the second wave (13-15th) and finally a 3rd wave adding 2-3 (16-18th). You can make out the storms on the first chart by the bands of colored squares that each represent a different model version (50 Versions by line number [arranged vertically). The gaps in between show the timing. On the bottom of each chart, on the horizontal axis, is the day (2 runs a day) for 15 days out.
These charts are a good way to get a sense of the timing and size of the upcoming storms. Here is an example of a good storm below.
Teleconnections
The first chart is of the Madden Julian Oscillation and shows where the MJO has been. The second chart shows the same and projects it forward. When it is in the circle it is considered neutral. Outside of the circle there are numbers in each quadrant that give the strength. Most favored phases for the west are 1-2 and 6-7-8.
Current state of ENSO El Nino Southern Oscillation
Lastly this is the ENSO chart over the last 12 years. This is shaping up to be a neutral year that looks similar to the 2019-20 season.
Thats it for now, we will update the model projection first thing in the morning.
Long-Range Forecast Predictions
Thank you for reading the blog and as always if you have any questions, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co. We have received many great questions, and it is a pleasure to answer them, so don’t hesitate to ask.
