Dec 6, 2024
5 Day Regional Totals
Upcoming Storms
During the “good times” it’s hard to believe that there will be any “bad times”, but this winter, we will have an active period, followed by an inactive period for the lower 48. It’s a little better for the Canadian resorts and the Pacific Northwest but that is this year’s pattern. Will there be teleconnection help to amplify the pattern during the good and bad stretches? That is why you are members here, to know the answers before anyone else, way in advance.
We have a storm in the PNW that is hitting today and tomorrow that will move through Utah overnight Saturday and Colorado on Sunday or Sunday night.
This system has been on the models for quite some time and has been consistently inconsistent, in terms of tracking, but has been consistently on the small side. Below we will have the European Ensemble model forecast for totals thru the next 15 days. Once this storm rolls through, there should be a bigger system hitting on the 15-16th. This storm will plow open the ridge as it begins to breakdown for the Active Pattern that will begin around the 22nd for Christmas week.
From December 22nd, thru January 20th, if we are right, will be the Active period with 7-8 solid storms producing 14-20 days of snow.
If, conditions are similar to the last time this active period rolled through. We had a favorable Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Artic Oscillation was pretty much neutral, until towards the end of that period where it went negative–with great results. That was that huge dump in Utah and Colorado on November 24-29th. It is possible that we are off by one harmonic of six days, therefore, if that is the case, then it would simply start December 28 through January 26.
The AO has been consistent so far, so we’ll see how it goes in the next week or two. The MJO is on the right track as well, with its projected path to enter Phase 6 by December 20th. We want teleconnection to enter phases 6, 7 and 8 and be at least 1.5 in strength (you can see how strong the MJO is by looking at how far out the “line” is from the center).
Canada
PNW
Lake Tahoe
Utah
Colorado
“Total Snow”
from last time
Discussion
We are about halfway through the “ridge of death” and it feels like the South Park episode where the kids are trapped for about 30 minutes and thoughts of cannibalism begin. The storm around the 9-10 is still uncertain and the storm that should be there around the 15th is too far out to tell. There are good storms projected for the Pacific Northwest and Canada, so keep those locations in mind when we go through this again in January.
Don’t forget about our free Ski Concierge service. We can plan a trip around when it will snow in January thru May. All you have to do is email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co and we’ll set you up!
500 mb and Hemisphere 500 mb Let it Go
Blended Long-Range European snowfall charts–50 versions
Canada
PNW
Lake Tahoe
Utah and Colorado
Meteorological Winter Engaged
These next two animated GIFs of the surface GFS and the 10,000 ft view from the 500 millibar level show what is going on. The storms are flowing over the ridge off the west coast. Click to Animate GIFs
Watch them each a few times and you see why the storms stop are blocked in the west and open for the east. Because of the ridge, the storms enter along the Canadian coast instead of Washington or Oregon. Then they move across Canada and then hit the northeast (New England). This is part of this year’s pattern and will return around mid-January.
First Bust
The December 3rd storm for Utah and Colorado is a Bust and was a casualty of the ridge out west. It was a gamble to have that storm on the Long-Range Forecast Predictions because to put it simply, looking back I should have known better. That storm was just too far north to drop into Utah and Colorado even with a stronger jet stream. Live and learn.
Upcoming Storms
This next system is not on your long-range list. It is looking a little better than 50-50 at this point that it will happen. It hits the west coast with an Atmospheric River (AR) like setup and will move southeast through Idaho reaching Utah in the afternoon, on Sunday December 8th, and Colorado overnight. Below are the long-range model runs from the Euro Ensemble for Loveland, Aspen and Alta.
There are two charts for each location because the first chart that shows the timing but is a little confusing to read in terms of snowfall totals. The second chart, looking at the bottom graph and not the color bars, is the projected snowfall total for the entire event.
Looking at the Aspen chart it shows 1″ for the first wave (Dec 9-10), 6″ for the second wave (13-15th) and finally a 3rd wave adding 2-3 (16-18th). You can make out the storms on the first chart by the bands of colored squares that each represent a different model version (50 Versions by line number [arranged vertically). The gaps in between show the timing. On the bottom of each chart, on the horizontal axis, is the day (2 runs a day) for 15 days out.
These charts are a good way to get a sense of the timing and size of the upcoming storms. Here is an example of a good storm below.
Teleconnections
The first chart is of the Madden Julian Oscillation and shows where the MJO has been. The second chart shows the same and projects it forward. When it is in the circle it is considered neutral. Outside of the circle there are numbers in each quadrant that give the strength. Most favored phases for the west are 1-2 and 6-7-8.
Current state of ENSO El Nino Southern Oscillation
Lastly this is the ENSO chart over the last 12 years. This is shaping up to be a neutral year that looks similar to the 2019-20 season.
Thats it for now, we will update the model projection first thing in the morning.
Long-Range Forecast Predictions
Thank you for reading the blog and as always if you have any questions, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co. We have received many great questions, and it is a pleasure to answer them, so don’t hesitate to ask.
