There are 4 predictions remaining for the first season of FutureSnow and all of the predicted storms are showing up on the GFS. This has been a fun year and it has been my pleasure to bring you this technology. Jerome Namias, in 1949, wrote that upper-level winds had asymmetric variations that repeated regularly. He used this knowledge to make 5-day, and later 30-day forecasts based on his “Index Cycle”. He was simply brilliant and wrote over 200 papers and received multiple awards, including the highest award from the American Meteorological Society. We are using his theory today, with modern technology, to give you forecasts over a month in advance so that YOU can have fresh snow when you go!
I got a chance to recharge the batteries this weekend at the Lake of the Ozarks. If you don’t know, the lake is huge spanning over 80 miles of winding turns and is featured in the Netflix show Ozark. If you have watched the series there are a lot of similarities—I’m just going to leave it there. This picture is from the cove next to Big Dicks Halfway Inn, which is about the middle of the lake at mile 47. Big Dicks is a popular restaurant and bar where you earn your stripes shooting a shot of liquor with a live minnow swimming in it. Ok so on to the next storm.
The storm that I coined CoSig back in cycle 2 (there are 2 main storms this year), is showing up on the models and is on time. Below is each 500 mb chart with vorticity of each cycle. Notice the similarities.
Do you notice how the projected Cycle five chart looks similar to cycle 1? It is because it is similar to the conditions and time of year. Cycle 1 was in the fall, cycle 5, present cycle is in the spring, with similar teleconnection patterns. I will be monitoring this storm and update you in a couple of days. Thanks for taking time to read the blog. Mike
Back on February 21st, the storm that is approaching Colorado for this coming Monday, was predicted by FutureSnow. It is part of the 46.5 day cycle length of this years repeating pattern. Monday’s storm has hit, on time, in every cycle with cycle 2 being the precipitation winner to date with 10” each at Vail and Keystone. The 5th cycle began on April 8th. Below is the GFS snapshot of the 500 hPa charts for each cycle. You can see plenty of similarities and differences due to the different teleconnections. There are several things to compare and contrast but I’ll mention a couple. First the remnants of hurricane Delta are in cycle 1–the red dot near Washington DC. I mention this because one aspect of the repeating pattern is useful in predicting future hurricanes. You won’t know in which cycle they will come, but whatever hurricanes that occur during the new cycling pattern, their path will reoccur in the same date of the cycle, with similar locations the following hurricane season. So in this instance, hurricane Delta hit the Gulf of Mexico around Texas and Louisiana—so it will hit that same region this hurricane season during the same day of the cycle (day 4 cycle 1), so look for a possible hurricane hitting the Gulf June 3rd, July 20th, or Sept 4t: probability 75% +/- 5 days. Second, you can also see how the polar vortex, in cycle 4, effected the pattern. Look at the location of the polar vortex and how that changed the look of the chart. The PV is an teleconnection so this is a clear example of how just one connection can change the outcome.
The next pattern storms will arrive towards the end of April. I will give you an update when we get a little closer. Thanks for spending time reading the FutureSnow/FutureHurricane blog, as always if you have any questions please ask in the comments section or send an email to Mike@FutureSnow.co.
Spring has come to most ski resorts but there are still many places to ski. There have been some surprise closings with COVID-19. Canada has shuttered a lot of resorts because of variant outbreaks, mainly the P1 variant. Vancouver’s Provincial health minister Dr. Bonnie Henry said that it was likely spread from visitors from eastern provinces. Whistler Blackcomb, Banff Sunshine Village, and Revelstoke to name a few of the resorts closed. No loss for Americans as the border is still closed to visit Canada.
Besides Alaska, Washington state is the best area to ski, followed by Oregon. In Washington, Mount Baker, Crystal Mountain will remain open until the first week of May. Mount Hood Oregon Resorts, Mount Hood Meadows, and timberline will be open through May. Timberline remains open in the summer with glacier skiing. Last year they were one of the first resorts to open back up. If you’ve never skied Mount Hood, Timberline is a bucket list hotel to stay at. The outside shots of the movie the Shining, was filmed on the dormant volcano. When you enter the lodge you are greeted by a friendly St. Bernard and amazing 4 sided, multilevel fireplace. The lodge cable network has a dedicated channel to the Shining, as well an wonderful documentary of how the hotel was built during the depression. I like to stay at Timberline and ski Meadows. Timberline ski resort is pretty small and not very challenging but at least worth a day—Meadows is excellent and can accommodate the beginner to expert.
Spring like conditions throughout the lower 48 and the boring part of the pattern spells corn harvesting–for now. There is one little system that should come in around the 5-7th beginning in the PNW and continuing through Utah and N Colorado.
The boring part of the pattern continues until April 12th when the next pattern storm arrives for Colorado. It is showing up on the models but looks warm–still a long ways off so I’ll keep you posted. This storm is storm 1 of the co-signature storms with part 2 arriving 13 days later. These storms have been regular throughout each cycle with the present cycle being the strongest. The two storms combined dumped 46″ at Telluride, over half of their 82″ in the entire cycle (46 days) from the Co-Sig storms. Below is a picture of an 2006 trip to Telluride. We flew in from Kansas City coming from around 950 feet above sea level to hiking up to Palmyra Peak (13,313 feet). Our lungs were burning–we could walk for a couple of minutes and had to stop to rest. The hike was worth it, of course, Telluride is a world class mountain.
We have received several trip reports from readers of FutureSnow and those are the best comments of all, and why we do this. The pure joy from skiing and Snowboarding on a powder day is so addictive. Its awesome to hear that joy expressed by hoots and hollers from all over the run. If you haven’t experienced that yet keep reading FutureSnow and you will know when to find powder. It can even happen with what’s left of this season. I had one of my best powder days ever at Arapahoe Basin in early May with knee-deep blower pow.