Impressive numbers for a May storm. Eldora had over a foot, Vail 10, Winter Park 7, Breck 6, Copper and Snowmass 5, Arapahoe Basin a thick 4. Disappointing numbers at ABay, I thought they would at least get 8. I will investigate and see how well it skis today. Tons of terrain open and I’m thinking the Cornice and Beavers should be fantastic.
This puts a wrap on the predictions chart. This storm was a great punctuation mark for showcasing the Pattern.
Winter storm warning issued today until 3pm–that will be extended. Paltry totals for most mountains yesterday, but that will change today with 4-8″ at Breck and ABasin. Eldora was the winner yesterday with 4 or 5″(cam est) Eldora should do really well today, as well, but the bullseye of this storm is the RMNP area and Winter Park.
Expect snow showers today with heavy snow at times. Temps will be in the mid 20s with highs near 30 today. Tonight much colder air will move in with temps in the teens. RMNP and Winter Park area will have winds in the 5-10 range with gusts of 15 mph. ABasin and Breck areas will have stronger winds of 10-15 with 30-35 mph gusts. 3-5″ today with 4-8″ after the lifts close. The movement of this storm has slowed a little so expect snow showers to continue through the night and tomorrow morning. Below is the GFS projected totals.
We are wrapping our inaugural season of FutureSnow with a great storm that was predicted way back on February 21st. We predicted 10 storms on that day and had just 1 bust. 90% for the last 10 storms and 87% for the season (43/49 87.7%). Here is the link for our complete scorecard:
This ability to be able to predict storms months in advance allows you to ask off from work, or be able to book trips for the cheapest possible prices and not be let down by bad snow conditions. Busts still happen but with a record approaching 90% the odds are ever in your favor–much more than just throwing a dart. Also, there are better years than this La Nina season. El Nino years produce much larger snowfall totals with the same ability to predict “Pattern” systems.
Do you know that this year the same number of snowfall days occurred in Colorado than last year, but with 30% less snow? Its true, 58 snowfall days this year vs 58 snowfall days last year–example from Beaver Creek if it had the same season length due to last years shortened COVID season.
Forecast for Sunday 1-2″
Today expect scattered snow with an inch or two at ABasin, and Breck. The main energy will start after the lifts stop spinning Sunday night.
Monday 2-4″ Daytime and 4-8″ Overnight
Snow throughout the day Monday. Larger totals will be in the RCMP area so a good place to make powder turns at the old Hidden Valley Resort. They took the lifts out in the early 90’s but the runs are still there and not overgrown. You can skin up or carpool to the top (if the road is open).
Powder day. The bulk of the snowfall will occur before the lifts start spinning on Tuesday. However, there will be scattered snow throughout the day with a couple more inches possible.
We are tracking a large spring storm that will begin in Colorado’s southern mountains late Sunday night. As of now, expect snow, off and on, throughout the day Monday and then scattered snow showers on Tuesday. This is a cold storm, especially for this time of year, It has produced in every cycle and is part 2 of this years Co-Signature (CoSig) storms. Below is the results of this impressive repeating system. When we get a little closer I will dial in the amounts, but it looks like solid double digits as of now. This storm’s history tells us that the GFS can be trusted. Below are the results throughout cycles 1-4.
Last Cycle (4)
Wolf 14″, Telluride 14″ Vail 9″
Cycle 3 Storm a day early)
Vail 29″, Breckenridge 23″, Crested Butte 14″
Cycle 2 (Tracked more favorably for Utah)
Breckenridge 6″, Alta 20″
Wolf 25″, Vail 15″, Crested Butte 16″
Here is a look at the signature troughs that occur with this system. Notice the similarities with the position of the ridge and the shape of the trough. Remember, the teleconnections drive the shape and strength of the storm with ENSO (LaNina) being the biggest influence.
We have one last prediction, May 9th, that was predicted way back on February 21st. Presently it is looking like a good storm and we will go out with a bang–with some double digits!
We will keep an eye on this storm and I’ll update you in a few days. If it holds together I’ll head out to Arapahoe Basin one last time–or maybe not the last–we will see. The snowpack will definitely not make it to July and probably not even June either.
If all holds together we will finish the year with an average accuracy of 87%. In this La Nina year we got it mostly right. In fact, this year is similar to last year if you look at the number of days it snowed. It snowed at Beaver Creek 58 days this year compared to 58 days last year. I had to shorten this season to match the same length last season because of the shutdown. So it snowed a very similar amount of days but the snow was about 30% less.
Below is the updated chart or you can access the spreadsheet here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/9qkwjg6yxrrb3a1/Snow%20totals%202021revised.xlsx?dl=0
There are other ways you can use your knowledge of the pattern. It is useful for predicting severe weather outbreaks. Look for May 18-20th for this possible strong setup for tornados. Thanks for spending a few moments reading the blog. Mike