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4th Straight AR, Hurricane Predictions

By June 11, 2022November 11th, 2022No Comments

View of 10-Mile Range Breckenridge

Summary

I hope you are enjoying the summer!  In this blog, I clean up some loose ends in regard to predicted atmospheric river events for Seattle, list the summer Hurricane predictions, update the California heat wave prediction, and update the present ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) condition.

Many of you know we accurately predicted Hurricane Ida, last year. We predicted when and where the hurricane would hit. You can find that blog post below.

Predicted Hurricane on the Horizon

The current hurricane prediction, as well as the predicted fourth atmospheric river, was posted April 3. You can read that blog post below.

Atmospheric River of the Third Time

Fourth Straight Atmospheric River (AR)

I thought I’d do a little house cleaning and follow up on the predicted atmospheric river for Seattle.  Seattle did get its fourth AR in a row. Which is unbelievable, and will provide a road map for future powder days next year.

Below are the four charts representing atmospheric rivers roughly 64 days apart, from most recent to November ‘21.  This is indisputable evidence that the weather cycles and repeats—as if you needed any more evidence.  



Looking at the charts you can see the low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska with an AR extending out in the Pacific in all charts.  There are slight differences between them that are variations of the pattern.

Where Are We?

We are still in the northern pattern for a few more days, then we switch back to the active west pattern.

This next version of the active West Pattern, will be completely different from the winter pattern. Currently, we are in a summer pattern, so it will be similar to the pattern in late August September.   The jet stream has receded north, so has the storm track, but the main trough producing systems will still drop down.  

’22 Hurricane Predictions

If you understand the CPH, you get a preview of what is to come for hurricane season, and when and where severe weather outbreaks will occur.  This year, the Pattern shows a quiet hurricane season–not active.  I am officially predicting a hurricane will hit one of these dates and locations:

Florida (Gulf side), around August 14

New England around September 5

Texas (coast) around September 28

I will put the odds around 70%, that a hurricane will form and hit one of those locations on those dates. If not, at least a strong tropical storm.   

California Heat Wave

All of those blocking high pressure ridges off the coast of California, in cycle 3, will likely return in cycle 5 and there could be record heat in California and possibly wildfires June 14-26 and cycle 6 Aug 17-29. 

California should get some relief at the end of that possible heatwave when a trough comes through. Below is the chart for what the June 26 (and Aug 29)trough should look like.  I don’t expect this trough to drop this far south, but it should go as deep as Tahoe–hopefully.

The June/August charts will look like the chart above, when it shows up on the GFS—with seasonal differences.  I expect the high pressure to be in a very similar position, as well as the low.  It is this trough that will bring cooler air and possible rain, around June 26/Aug29.  

From May 12 Update Follows

An extended dry stretch of 38 days, no precipitation in Tahoe from Jan 8 thru Feb 15, occurred in cycle 2.  That corresponds to May 16 thru June 26.  There are indications that that is setting up, however, there is a storm showing up on the GFS around May 26.  It that storm goes “poof” then its game-on.

Update

The dry stretch is verifying, Tahoe has received two hundredths of an inch since May 16.  Now we will see if that heat wave builds.

Last Thing Updated ENSO Chart Below

What is ENSO?

What is El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)?  ENSO is a climate driver that changes temperature and precipitation patterns throughout the world. 

There are three phases–El Nino, Neutral, and La Nina.  This diagram below shows the differences between El Nino and La Nina.  Neutral falls in between the two.

Current ENSO Status

This was the second year in a row we had a La Nina winter, will it be 3-straight?   Two winters in seventy-two years had triple-dip La Ninas, the odds are against it, for sure. However, NOAA writes in their April 25th ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) report, that there is a 59 percent likelihood of a La Nina Persisting into summer and a 50-55 percent chance remaining for the fall. 

Below is NOAA’s long-range outlook predicting La Nina to continue thru the fall.


Updated Chart


We are trending in the right direction for our El Niño Prediction.

 

Washington Post Matthew Capucci on ENSO

Washington Post columnist Mathew Cappucci, BA Meteorology Harvard, says “Since bookkeeping began in 1950, there have been eight “double-dip” La Ninas, including the present.  Only two ended up evolving to have a third consecutive La Nina winter.” 

Cappucci further summarizes that La Nina, because it overlapped with record-breaking hurricane season in 2020 (30 named storms), followed by the third most named storms, in 2021, that La Nina patterns “bolster the risk of severe weather” during tornado and hurricane season.  Which I would agree with.  However, the cycling pattern, which sets up in the fall and cycles through the following fall, does have an indicator for the following hurricane season.   Therefore, according to what happened last fall during the transition, it should be just the opposite–mild hurricane season.

Admittingly, it is not a strong correlation, due to only 20 years of data for the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis (Lezak et al, J Climatology Weather Forecasting 2018), but if my indicator is true, we will switch to El Nino this fall.  With El Nino in place, there will be less hurricane activity. Which is what I am predicting.

 

Thank you for reading the blog, if you have any questions, as always, feel free to comment or send an email to Mike@FutureSnow.CO

 

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