Dec 15, 2024
Daily Snow Stakes
GFS Surface thru Dec 31st
Total Snow
NWS 2-Day Totals PNW, Tahoe, Utah, Jackson Hole/Targhee and Idaho
Forecast
We have leftovers from the current system that is rolling thru Utah and Colorado. Scattered snow showers at best with minor accumulations. I’m disappointed it wasn’t better for Colorado, but on the bright side the active pattern is showing up and all will turn around.
Another wave will move thru the Pacific Northwest and Lake Tahoe tomorrow night, not much expected with this part for California, 2-4 or 3-5 refresh.
In the southern Cascades we’ll have scattered snow showers today with a stronger wave hitting tonight. Expect 8-12 for Mt Hood by first chair tomorrow. In the north scattered snow showers with minor accumulations. Tonight expect 4-8 for Crystal and 3-5 for Mt Baker.
Pattern Discussion
The Active Pattern (Series of Pacific Storms), and the Ridge Pattern (Northwest Flow Pattern). I was concerned in late summer that we might have a bad pattern, because we went thru a couple of periods of extended ridging. I was hoping it was a part of the transition to the new pattern and things looked good, until late November, when models began to show the ridge again.
Well, the Ridge Pattern is beginning to fade, and the Active Pattern is showing up on the models again. It is way out, around Dec 26th, but that is what I have been waiting for. Hopefully the trend is out friend, and it continues.
I have thought it is possible I am off on the pattern by a 6-day harmonic. If that is true the trend will disappear and not show up again until January 3rd, or so.
Is it a bad pattern? It depends on your perspective. This is a great pattern for the Pacific Northwest and Canada, so those of you who like to take trips to new places put Canada on your list. There are incredible resorts there and I recommend everyone go to Banff (Lake Louise, Sunshine Village), the Powder Highway resorts (Red Mountain, Revelstoke, Kicking Horse and Panorama) and Whistler Blackcomb.
The Ridge Pattern seems to be good for Lake Tahoe, with the back half of the pattern opens the storm door that they are going through now.
Utah and Colorado its feast or famine–November good, December bad, January good–hopefully. There are a couple of good storms in the Ridge Pattern, but they are spread out. If you ski/ride in the northeast, this pattern is the opposite of Colorado and Utah. Meaning when the Active Pattern begins again, the northeast pattern will likely go dormant.
Next Storm Pacific Northwest, Tahoe Monday Night
Long-Range Forecast Predictions
Thank you for reading the blog and as always if you have any questions, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co.
