Dec 14, 2024
Daily Snow Stakes
GFS Surface thru Dec 30th Active Pattern is Beginning to Show Up
Total Snow
Below is the 10-Day
NWS 2-Day Totals PNW, Tahoe, Utah, Jackson Hole/Targhee and Idaho
Pattern Discussion
When you study the cycling pattern you get to know each season’s pattern really well by the time summer arrives and the next pattern begins to develop. When we were in the active pattern, back in November, it was hard to understand that there would be two unique patterns for the 24-25 winter.
The Active Pattern, and the Ridge Pattern. I was concerned in late summer that we might have a bad pattern, because we went thru a couple of periods of extended ridging. I was hoping it was a part of the transition to the new pattern and things looked good, until late November, when models began to show the ridge again.
Well, the Ridge Pattern is beginning to fade, and the Active Pattern is showing up on the models again. It is way out, around Dec 26th, but that is what I have been waiting for. Hopefully the trend is out friend, and it continues.
I have thought it is possible I am off on the pattern by a 6-day harmonic. If that is true the trend will disappear and not show up again until January 3rd, or so.
Is it a bad pattern? It depends on your perspective. This is a great pattern for the Pacific Northwest and Canada, so those of you who like to take trips to new places put Canada on your list. There are incredible resorts there and I recommend everyone go to Banff (Lake Louise, Sunshine Village), the Powder Highway resorts (Red Mountain, Revelstoke, Kicking Horse and Panorama) and Whistler Blackcomb.
The Ridge Pattern seems to be good for Lake Tahoe, with the back half of the pattern opens the storm door that they are going through now.
Utah and Colorado its feast or famine–November good, December bad, January good–hopefully. There are a couple of good storms in the Ridge Pattern, but they are spread out. If you ski/ride in the northeast, this pattern is the opposite of Colorado and Utah. Meaning when the Active Pattern begins again, the northeast pattern will likely go dormant.
Forecast
Heavy snow today in the Pacific Northwest down the coast to Lake Tahoe. In the Cascades, expect 1-2 feet at Mt Baker with Mt Hood slightly less at 10-16 by first chair tomorrow.
Lake Tahoe gets hammered today with Winter Storm Warnings all along the crest. Expect 1-3 feet for Kirkwood, Sugar Bowl and Palisades with 8-12 likely for Dodge Ridge, Northstar and Homewood.
That storm moves into Utah as early as 11am and will drop 4-8 by evening, with another 5-10 overnight tonight at Alta, Snowbird, Brighton, and Solitude.
Colorado
Southern Colorado gets skunked with this round and the rest of the state gets leftover scraps from Utah and California. Not much doing with this system. The central and northern resorts will fare the best with 2-4 or 3-6 is the best we can do. Hopefully a surprise or two.
The next wave for Colorado is Tuesday and this one should be better–fingers crossed. It still looks like the central and northern mountains will do best.
Next Storm Pacific Northwest, Tahoe Monday Night
Long-Range Forecast Predictions
Thank you for reading the blog and as always if you have any questions, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co.
