Pattern Discussion
The big headline today is the Buffalo snowstorm with the huge lake-affect snow. We will discuss what will happen the next time this storm returns to Buffalo below. For those of you who are new to the blog, you can learn more about the repeating pattern here. We predict weather, with an 89% accuracy rate, 30+ days in advance, so you will know when to plan your trip.
The next system for the west begins in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) late Monday afternoon and evening. The last couple of times that this storm has come through it has been a good producer for Canadian resorts along powder Highway—Revelstoke, Fernie and Kicking Horse, to name a few. The path went SE through Montana and Wyoming, then up through Chicago and exits through New England.
We have been talking about this storm, during this dry stretch, my thoughts had been that a stronger jet stream would drive the storm further south. The models agree with those thoughts and the storm is dropping farther south and going through Northern Colorado.
As you follow the storm across the continent, with the animated GIF from Tropical Tidbits, you see the storm pick up energy from the Gulf after it passes Colorado.
This system is part of a 1-2 punch for New England. Which is digging out after the huge Buffalo Storm, still in progress. I don’t think that Buffalo will be hit as hard the next time through. I believe the energy will dive farther south, just like it’s dropping farther south, this time, with the system above. That should change the angle of the lake affect snow. It will likely be colder as well.
Next Storm Nov 28th (bonus)
This next system is a bonus storm because it was not there the last time through. The hint was there, which in the past I would have called this a wild-card storm. I have learned to read the setups much better as I have gained experience and now know that this is a possibility. It is well needed too, because this part of the pattern has been weak.
Looking at that large trough, off the California coast, you can see it has strong vorticity. Presently around 45-50 if you match the dark red to the scale. When you flip the 500mb scale to the MSLP (mean sea level pressure) you see where the precipitation bands are and the intensity. This is setting up to be an atmospheric river (AR) if it holds together.
Keep in mind that this storm is 228 hours away and a lot can change during the next week. We will be forecasting this storm as if we were “regular” meteorologists, but the next time through we will “know” when to expect it.
Prediction Chart
That brings us to our first forecasted prediction, the December 5th thru 8th storm. This storm brought double-digit totals to British Columbia, Washington, Montana, Utah and Colorado, while bringing snow to Lake Tahoe, SoCal resorts and New Mexico.
Will this storm (December 5) be as strong as it was the last time through? We are working on that, right now, plotting how the teleconnections will line up this time through.
Presently, I would say yes, it looks good and is as strong, or stronger. The Madden Jullian Oscillation (MJO), Artic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are looking favorable. I would like the AO and NAO to remain negative to neutral–that’s what we are waiting on. A few more days to confirm.
Subscription Service Begins in December
Just a reminder we will be launching our subscription service in December. We will no longer be free–it is necessary to pay the bills. We are keeping costs as low as possible, while bringing you knowledge of pattern, to plan your trips in advance.
We also plan to offer our Snow Concierge service again this year. With Snow Concierge, you will be able to plan your trip using our long-range forecast model data before it is released. Meaning you could plan a trip in January, February, or perhaps Spring Break, while talking directly to us. We will tell you when and where to go and provide you with expert snow forecasting along the way. You will get snow or your money back!
Thanks for spending a few minutes reading the blog. As always, if you have any questions feel free to comment below or email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co
Forecasted Areas
Pacific Northwest Cascade Mountains
Crystal Mountain, Mount Hood Meadows, Timberline, 49 Degrees North, Bachelor, Mt Baker,
Lake Tahoe Sierra Mountains
Heavenly, Palisades Tahoe, Kirkwood, Dodge Ridge, Donner Ski Ranch
Utah Wasatch Mountains
Alta, Park City, Deer Valley, Brighton, Snowbird, Brian Head
Colorado Rocky Mountains
Aspen, Aspen Highlands, Snowmass, Vail, Beaver Creek, Winter Park, Keystone, Arapahoe Basin, Breckenridge, Copper Mountain, Powderhorn, Ski Cooper, Telluride, Crested Butte, Silverton, Wolf Creek, Eldora, Loveland
