Cat 3 Idalia Landfall

Posted August 30, 2023

Idalia

We are entering September on a high note, with our second consecutive prediction. I am watching coverage right now, hopefully everyone headed the warnings and moved to high ground.

This storm will move northeast thru Georga and the Carolinas and meander out to sea, where it will redevelop and will likely take a U-turn and skirt the east coast before exiting near Maine.

Below are the 500 mb and MSLP surface chart with the track. It’s a little easier to see on the MSLP surface chart.

Patent Pending Weather 2020 Model

The Weather 2020 Model predicted rainfall totals that aligned with this storm, back on July 12th.

Again, I had the primary track from the east coast. I did mention, back on the original forecast May 19th, that I thought the secondary track (turned out to be the correct track) was unlikely. I should have paid attention to the model prediction and changed the path, but the model run was 4 weeks later. Two out of three (Date and Location) is still a huge success for our system.

With Hilary, we hit the Trifecta, Path, Date and Location. Those of you who have been around for a few years know that is an endearing term.

Let’s take a look at the updated list (click to enlarge). You can scratch off Louisiana date, because the Florida path eliminates that prediction–this was an either-or situation, which we explained with our original forecast May 19th.

Louisiana is NOT off the hook yet. This storm could return next cycle and hit Louisiana October 14-22nd.

There is another Florida possibility on September 29th.

This is not on the list, but I think I should at least mention it. This is a small system that could pop up north of Cuba. The track is difficult to predict. I see two possibilities. A track that splits Cuba and Florida and hits the Gulf Coast (probably strengthen to a hurricane) or, flow up either side of Florida. The latter would probably just be a Tropical storm.

You can find the original post, and all Hurricane posts on this page—most recent posts first. https://futuresnow.co/hurricane-forecast-2023/

Hawaii is next in the list. That doesn’t mean there will be a long break between possible hurricanes, that simply means I did not see many recurring storms during this period. With the exception of a possible storm that could come thru Honduras or Nicaragua on Sept 17th. That could reach Hurricane strength, but probably a tropical storm at best.

LRC (Lezak’s Recurring Cycle), Index Cycle (Jerome Namias)

The weather repeats, that is what the LRC is about. Those who say that “the weather has no memory”, or that mother nature is random, are simply wrong–they just can’t see it.

Jerome Namias discovered the cycling pattern back in the 40’s, then it got lost in time. Gary Lezak discovered the Pattern in the late 80’s and has spent his life perfecting this forecasting method. I followed Gary’s blog and started using the pattern over 10 years ago to plan ski trips.

It’s become an obsession.

Every day I pour through charts and spend hours working on crazy theories until they either prove to be valid, or wrong. Thousands of charts, hundreds of folders.