Posted September 4, 2023
It’s Meteorological Fall!
It’s been a long summer and with the beginning of September we can celebrate Meteorological Fall. Happy Labor Day everybody! Astronomical fall begins in 18 days. The new pattern is transitioning with the old pattern and what a pattern it was. Last year will be remembered for the rest of our lives for the record snowfall in Utah and California. Will there be record snowfall for Colorado this year? That is what we will all find out as this winter’s El Nino pattern is setting up now.
Below is an animation of the transition from La Nina to El Nino.
El Nino Pattern
Last year, back in October, you saw the pattern flip from bone dry in California to wet. The jet stream behaved like it was on steroids, dropping 900 inches in Utah resorts and over 700 inches in Lake Tahoe. It doesn’t take a genius to assume that Tahoe and Utah won’t receive that much snow this year, but I will say that it is likely that Utah and Colorado will be above average this coming season.
In fact, based on the multi-year pattern, it looks like Colorado will be the sweet spot this year, in terms of above average snowfall. We will know for sure once we get to October. At that time, we will have our first snowfall predictions for the season.
This was sent in from Beth, traveling in Europe–probably a cousin. She’s ready for ski season!
Hurricane Predictions
Let’s take a look at the updated list (click to enlarge). You can scratch off Louisiana date, because the Florida path, that eliminates that prediction–this was an either-or situation which we explained with our original forecast May 19th.
Louisiana is NOT off the hook yet. This storm could flip from Florida and return next cycle, hitting Louisiana October 14-22nd.
GFS Model Guidance
This storm is interesting because one, it is supposed to be there, but it should take a different track. I have it going through central America, near Nicaragua, arriving around Sept 17th. Let’s give it a couple more model runs and see if anything changes.
Another Florida Storm?
We are on a roll so I thought I would lay another card on the table. There is another Florida possibility I think I will mention–September 29th. This is not on the list and is an unlikely scenario, but with these early storms hitting, unlikely is still possible. A small system could pop up north of Cuba. The track is difficult to predict. I see two possibilities. A track that splits Cuba and Florida and hits the Gulf Coast (probably strengthen to a hurricane) or, flow up either side of Florida. The latter would probably just be a Tropical storm.
We will keep an eye on these possibilities and look for something to develop. Hurricanes and typhoons like to hang out together. This should be a quiet part of the pattern, hurricane/typhoon wise, so I don’t expect anything to show up on the models until the end of the month. With the exception of the middle of the Atlantic, there could be one that may possibly affect the Archipelagos.
You can find the original post May 19th, and all Hurricane posts on this page—most recent posts appear first. https://futuresnow.co/hurricane-forecast-2023/
Thanks for reading the blog! If you have any questions feel free to comment below or email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co
