I have been receiving a lot of interest in the Trifecta storm that will be coming up in February. This is a good storm to chase. However, there are a couple of things to know about chasing this storm. There are 3 waves, and the best wave in both cycles 1 and 2 occurred on the 3rd wave. The second thing is the cycle length is running long. Meaning I expect the beginning to arrive a day, to a couple of days late. The last 4 storms have been at least a day late, with the nor’easter being 3 days late, and may break the perfect record streak.
Why are the last few storms arriving late? The best answer is that there is probably a fraction of a day, like half a day, or 2/3rds of a day, longer for the cycle length. Last year’s cycle length centered on 46 2/3 days and it had a storm +/- day rate of 3 days. It is probable that this year would have a fraction. That can explain why we are off by a day–so far. Also, the storms don’t arrive exactly on time. They can fluctuate between 1-3 days, but most of the time they are like clockwork.
The cycle length could have flexed to a longer length as well. We will keep an eye on when the models begin to come into range in the next couple of days, then we will know the answer. I am not going to worry, too much, about the nor’easter being late, because I included that one just for fun–my expertise is the West. However, it could hold a clue as to why the other storms are late.
The best day to chase this storm will be Feb 8-11th–Arrive by the 7th (both UT and CO). I am going to add 18 hours to the predictions chart to mark, and counter, this trend. All changes to the Prediction Chart must be made before storms come into model range–No Cheating! The same thing occurred last year, a couple of days were added, but that occurred earlier, due to the shorter cycle length.
The next system hits the PNW on Thursday and Thursday night. This storm is one of the precursors to the change back to the Active West Pattern. As discussed earlier, it is about a day late, as is the northern storm, if you’re looking at the Colorado or PNW Calendars. Nothing for Tahoe until February–but it will be worth the wait guys!