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Forecast Blog

Cut Off Low, Oh No

By February 10, 2023No Comments

Daily Snow Stake


Surface Chart 

All Snow Chart

Pattern Discussion

Storm 43-44 looks like it will miss, due to the energy being cut-off from the main flow.  It is going to miss Utah and instead hit Tahoe.  This is not a strong storm; it is the precursor to a strong storm that follows.  We talked about that yesterday and you can see the history of storm 45-48 below.  Chaulk up another bust, unless something unexpected happens.  

Teleconnection wise, we are racing towards an enhanced MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation).  We will be entering phase 6 sometime tomorrow.  We can tell that storm 45-48 will be strong, it will be interesting to see how long the storms that follow are amplified, to gage what kind of lag the MJO has.  La Nina is in its weakest position, over the last few years at 0.8 (1.0 last year, at the same period and 1.2 in 2020).


Storm History

We had a strong storm come through at the end of January, that dumped double digit totals in Utah and Colorado. 3-day totals at Alta 23, Snowbird 23, Park City 15 and Brighton 33.

In Colorado, Beaver Creek 23, Vail 24, Steamboat 31 and Crested Butte 21.


The cut-off Low system will be hitting the Lake tonight.  We are generally expecting 3-5 across the board with some locations in the 4-8 range.  Temperatures tomorrow, will be in the mid to upper 20’s with moderate winds 25-20 with gusts around 35 mph.  For resorts south of the lake, there is a pretty good chance of adding to the totals during the day Saturday, before the system moves out.  I would love for it to stall and dump, but that is unlikely.  

Whatever remains from the system reaches New Mexico and Colorado about mid-day on Monday.

Next Storm

The next storm, the big one, begins Monday in Vancouver and works its way on a southeast track, it is a little compressed due to an offshore High-Pressure area.  We will dive into this one over the weekend.  

Thank you for reading the blog, as always, if you have any questions, or need personalized info for trip forecasts, please email me at

Long-Range Forecast Predictions thru March 

Forecasted Areas

Pacific Northwest Cascade Mountains

Crystal MountainMount Hood MeadowsTimberline49 Degrees North,  BachelorMt Baker,

Lake Tahoe Sierra Mountains

HeavenlyPalisades TahoeKirkwoodDodge RidgeDonner Ski Ranch

Utah Wasatch Mountains

AltaPark CityDeer ValleyBrightonSnowbirdBrian Head

Colorado Rocky Mountains

AspenAspen HighlandsSnowmassVailBeaver Creek,  Winter ParkKeystoneArapahoe BasinBreckenridgeCopper MountainPowderhornSki CooperTellurideCrested ButteSilvertonWolf CreekEldoraLoveland

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