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Final Prediction Sheet Update

By April 27, 2022No Comments

41/46 89% Accurate

We made 46 predictions this year, on our official prediction chart, getting 41 of 46 correct, which is 89.13%.  I would have loved to have hit that 90 percent number, but we did improve on last year’s 87.5 number.  We came out of the gate red hot, getting our first 20 correct, before our first bust, Whistler Blackcomb, in British Columbia.

The biggest disappointment came in Cycle 3, when the much-anticipated Trifecta storm, got gobbled up by high pressure off the Pacific Coast and another high pressure centered in Nevada.  It wasn’t a bust technically, it did snow, but it definitely didn’t perform the way it should have.  We did have a calculation error that caused a “technical bust” later.  It was discovered and corrected 25 days before the storm, but in my view, once a prediction is made and is on the chart, it can’t be changed.  So, those two busts evened out. 

Cycle 3 was thought to continue the party.  There were two mistakes made in that assumption. The first was simply poor judgement, on my part.  The strength of Cycle 2 was very strong, my colleagues and I thought that would continue, due to the usually stronger jet that time of year.  But that didn’t happen.  The strength of the cycle reverted to that of Cycle 1.  The first lesson is don’t assume.

Second, a calculation error caused a cascading effect for our new regional calendars.  That, coupled with the weaker cycle, caused the calendars to be off by 6 days.  Also, the size of the storms were smaller, effecting the length (in hours) of the storms.  Those two mistakes, especially the algorithm error, rendered the calendars worthless.  Second lesson, triple check the math.  

I do like the calendars though, I like how they make it easy to plan a trip.  I would like to make these printable, so that you can pin them to the wall to follow along.  We will get these right next season!

Upcoming Storms

There are a lot of storms left in this snow season.  Although most resorts will be closed after this weekend, there are quite a few that will hold out as long as they can. 

Arapahoe Basin (Memorial Day)

Palisades Tahoe 5-15

Mammoth 5-31

Mt Hood Timberline June

Sunshine Village (Late May)

Blackcomb Glacier TBD

Alyeska Open Weekends Thru May 15th

Pattern Storms

The above GIF are the systems that are coming in the next 2 weeks.  This time of year temperatures come into play.  If it is cold, there will be snow on the following dates.  I will keep posting, though not as regularly, throughout May.  

April 28-29 This storm hit in Cycles 1 and 2 and was 2 days late in Cycle 3.  Cycle 2 had rain for the PNW

May 5 (Tahoe AR Oct 25) Epic 100″ week in Cycle 2 with 39″ 1-day total in Cycle 1.However, in Cycle 3 the storm was caught up in the double-barrel high and that pushed the storm up in Canada.

May 7-8 Good storm all three cycles for Colorado and Utah with double-digit totals for all 3 Cycles with Cycle 2 the winner.  If you are looking for a powder day in May, this is the one to watch.  Arapahoe Basin time?

May 13-14 Storm hit Colorado all 3 cycles and missed to the north of Utah, in Cycle 1

May 17 Missed Utah and Colorado to the north in Cycle 1, but hit in both Cycle 2-3

May 20-21 Last storm of Active West Small system due to the weakening Active West pattern and transition to the Northern Pattern.  Hit in all 3 cycles for Utah and Colorado

June 5-6 AR 4th Straight for Seattle?


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