Nov 4, 2024 5:18 am
Surface, All Snow, All Snow Let It Go, 500 mb flow. Click/Animate
Pattern/Forecast Discussion
Day 29 Cycle 1
What a storm on day 28! Full boards at Copper and Breckenridge and we still have a couple hours of snowfall potential. Vail pass is currently closed and from the comments on FB this storm took everyone by surprise. Storm totals from the snow stakes look like this. Copper 18, Breckenridge 16, Cooper 11, Beaver Creek 9, Eldora 8, Vail 7, Winter Park 7, Purgatory 7, Telluride 6, Arapahoe Basin 6 and Aspen 5.
Next System hits Utah and northern Colorado late Tomorrow and is the Nov 2 -4 storm on the predictions chart (below). There are a lot of new people who do not know how we forecast beyond model range. Once we get a break I will go through and explain how we do it. For now, check out the “About” page. It has a brief explanation about our patent pending model.
Next Storm hits the PNW today, Utah and Colorado tomorrow.
This is the second storm from the Nov 2 and 4 long-range test chart. I think this second system, next cycle, will be a big producer for Lake Tahoe, it may even be an AR (atmospheric river) event. I am actually surprised that it isn’t going to hit this time thru, with the favorable conditions from the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation). This time thru it is behaving like a Clipper, whereas last time thru it was cutoff over California. Something to keep an eye on for sure.
As you can see from the 500 mb flow, the next system digs into Arizona and New Mexico and gets cutoff. That will help the southern resorts. Unfortunately, this storm will likely not perform well for Utah. This is one of the storms that, last time thru, missed Utah all together. As of now it looks like 4-6 at best for now. I’ll have the numbers later today and post them on Facebook.
LONG-RANGE TEST FORECAST +/- 2 days tolerance (Made October 15th)
October 29th, Tahoe, Utah and Colorado Verified
November 2 and 4th (2 Waves), Utah and Colorado Verified
November 8-9th, Utah and Colorado On GFS, Day Early
November 13th, Pacific Northwest On GFS, Day Early
November 17th, Utah and Colorado On GFS
November 22nd, Utah and Colorado Not in Range
December 3rd, Utah and Colorado Not in Range
Thank you for reading the blog and as always if you have any questions, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co. We have received many great questions, and it is a pleasure to answer them, so don’t hesitate to ask.