October 1, 2024
No Snow on the Models….Yet
It is finally October; the long wait is over….so when is it going to snow? Short answer is, I don’t know. It has been warm, but we are seeing signs that the pattern is changing. What we see on the models today will likely be changing in the next few days. This time of year, is difficult for the models to be accurate due to the changing pattern from last year’s 45-day pattern to whatever the new pattern will be.
A couple of weeks back we put out our early winter forecast, and my thoughts have not changed since then. We are expecting the Pacific Northwest to have above average snowfall. The warm storm pattern from last year is gone and this year’s flow pattern looks to have more zonal flow, which is when the storms move in a diagonal direction from the Pacific Northwest southeast thru northern Utah and northern Colorado. This type of pattern is also good for the northern Rocky resorts in Idaho, Montana and Wyoming.
Last Year’s First Significant Snowfall
A Quick Peek at the Teleconnections
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Equatorial sea surface temperatures are below normal indicating that it is moving in the direction of a La Nina. Currently ENSO is neutral. The CPC (Climate Prediction Center) projects a weak La Nina (71% Chance).
Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)
The MJO is in phase 1 and is projected to move into neutral conditions.
Artic Oscillation (AO)
This is interesting, you can see the beginning of the AO chart has a nice wave pattern and then it flattens out and then it returns to a nice wave pattern. This could be the transition from the old pattern to the new. Interesting.
Quick Hurricane Update
It has been quite a year for hurricane predictions. There is another storm that is showing up on the models, potentially, for our Baja California prediction. It is running a little early, so we’ll keep an eye on the model data. This would be five and be the most I have hit on one year. Last year 4 and this year 4.
Thank you for reading the blog and as always if you have any questions, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co. We have received many great questions, and it is a pleasure to answer them, so don’t hesitate to ask.
