Snow Stake Cams
Pattern Discussion
The backside of the storm moves out, after we squeezed out a few more inches here and there. I hope you got a chance to ride this storm, but if not, it will come back around the end of January.
We are in a little lull in the pattern, which you can see in the spreadsheet below. This file is recorded snowfall, along with proprietary data, from the last cycle and was confirmed in the cycles before. The yellow blocks are the specific storms, with dates projected to recur.
The next system from the forecast chart is the yellow block after the blue box. The last time this storm came through, it was an atmospheric river (AR) event near Seattle. There have been a lot of AR’s this year. The models have a weaker pattern showing up over the next week, that is a result of the strong arctic oscillation (AO) and neutral Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). The strong AO is allowing ridging in the Gulf of Alaska.
This year’s pattern has been amplified by the MJO. Think of the MJO as fuel for the storms. What is the MJO? It is an eastward moving storm that circles the earth every 30-60 days near the equator.
The chart below tracks where the storm is and its intensity. Currently, the storm is in the Indian ocean.
When the MJO is in the Western Pacific, the energy can produce a moisture transport and amplify pattern storms. Based on the chart, we won’t get any help from the MJO until sometime in January.
Above is the GFS snowfall forecast for the next couple of weeks. This is likely going to change, as the solution and track are a little off. The ICON below, followed by the GFS Ensemble are closer to our model forecast.
The models will come to agreement soon. I am going to go into further detail this afternoon. I have a couple of meetings with our IT staff this morning. We are going to be adding new features, based on what a lot of you have been asking for. Such as a dedicated snow stake page, snowfall history, and resort conditions. We have a few more cool features that I am looking forward to adding soon, along with Gary Lezak and the Weather 2020 side. Check back later today for the update. Mike
Weather 2020 Meteorologist Gary Lezak
In case you missed it, we announced our partnership with Weather 2020, and meteorologist Gary Lezak is joining our team. Gary will be doing a weekly video blog, along with pattern updates and much more.
Thanks for reading the blog, as always if you have any questions, please ask in the comments below or send an email to Mike@FutureSnow.CO
Forecasted Areas
Pacific Northwest Cascade Mountains
Crystal Mountain, Mount Hood Meadows, Timberline, 49 Degrees North, Bachelor, Mt Baker,
Lake Tahoe Sierra Mountains
Heavenly, Palisades Tahoe, Kirkwood, Dodge Ridge, Donner Ski Ranch
Utah Wasatch Mountains
Alta, Park City, Deer Valley, Brighton, Snowbird, Brian Head
Colorado Rocky Mountains
Aspen, Aspen Highlands, Snowmass, Vail, Beaver Creek, Winter Park, Keystone, Arapahoe Basin, Breckenridge, Copper Mountain, Powderhorn, Ski Cooper, Telluride, Crested Butte, Silverton, Wolf Creek, Eldora, Loveland
