Pattern is Changing

Posted August 8, 2023

The Pattern is Changing

Have you noticed anything different? Last year’s pattern is transitioning into this year’s pattern. It all starts at the northern latitudes where the jet stream is at its highest point of the year. Watch the flow of this animated GIF.

The main energy is way up in the artic circle (Artic Circle Diagram).

Watch the areas of low pressure hit the Alaskan gulf coast–these storms will migrate south and be the storms that will cycle through this winter. Also, Typhoon Khanun can be seen skirting Japan on a path towards South Korea. This is the 6th Typhoon this season.

Tropical Storm Indication

Closer to home, the first indication of the Yucatan and Pacific Storms are showing up in the animated GIF below. Watch as it spins up off the coast of South America. This is a really interesting model run, because both storms are represented in this GIF. You can see a little bit of energy flow across the Atlantic, via the West African coast, then that energy spins up the west coast of Mexico.

This is still a long way out, but the models have picked up on what should happen. Will this turn into a Hurricane? Maybe, but it is more likely to be a hurricane 49 days from now.

Hurricane Dates

Below are the possibilities for hurricanes and locations. Sometimes we get the date right and the location is different. That has happened, if you recall a couple of years ago when we predicted the exact date of Hurricane Ida but predicted the storm to hit near the Texas/Louisiana coast.

I have some ideas on these alternate locations. The storm from 2 years ago spawned in the correct location, but the trade winds were in a different set-up, creating the path of which Ida eventually took. Understanding each cycles wind currents will give us a better chance of getting the location possibilities narrowed.

Below are the early opportunities for Hurricanes using our long-range prediction formula. Followed by the more likely scenario.

Less Likely

Aug 12-15 Yucatan

Aug 12-17 Pacific Storm

More Likely

Aug 30-Sept 6 Florida

Sept 6-8th Louisiana

Sept 30-Oct 3rd Yucatan

Sept 30-Oct 5 Pacific Storm

New Resort Pages Added (still a work in progress)