Posted July 31, 2023
South America Stoke
Catedral Alta Patagonia, which loosely translates to High Church in Patagonia. Can I get an Amen?
North American Monsoon
It was a late start to Monsoon season here in Colorado. Last year, it was a very wet summer that lasted into the third week in September. This season has been quiet, but the models are showing an uptick in precipitation over the next couple of weeks.
Most of July, the high pressure “Dome”, as the media loves to call it, has been over the desert southwest, sending scorching temperatures that have lasted throughout the month of July. That area of high pressure is moving east and will occupy Texas for the near term opening the window for monsoon moisture to flow into Colorado.
Back in June the NWS issued this outlook for the three-month period, followed by the current forecast.
You can see the below average moisture has expanded for Colorado and Utah, as well as the Pacific Northwest and the above average precipitation has moved east.
These forecasts are based on what has happened in the past three months coupled with model data and projected forward. If you have been following the blog for the past few years you know that the pattern switches between July and October and a new pattern emerges that will cycle through the next year. The pattern is starting over, so all data in the past will be invalid due to this change.
That is why everyone got the forecast for Utah and California wrong last year. That is why what is happening now, in northern Canada, will give us insight into this winter’s pattern. When we were in September last year, it was clear to us that we were going to have a good winter. The 64-day cycle was significantly shorter (49 days) and the storms that were cycling through Canada, did not have any significant breaks–they were incredibly regular.
Below is a quick 7 second video showing last year’s pattern. Watch Alaska’s Aleutian Islands, and coast, as storm after storm hits without any significant breaks.
That same pattern continued throughout the snow season with practically no blocking. Blocking comes in the form of ridging, where storms are blocked and have to go around a ridge of high pressure. That didn’t happen last year in the video above and throughout the whole season. I can’t say it enough, what is going to happen in the next two months will set the tone for the entire winter.
Remember this video I put out a few months ago comparing the cycles? They all dropped from the late summer track and became the storms in the comparison below.
It’s too early to tell what this year’s pattern will hold, but safe to say that by mid-September, we will know. We will issue our first winter forecast sometime around then.
Long-Range Decadal Pattern
I have hinted at a good winter for Utah and Colorado, which is based on my research on a decadal pattern. This is far from a complete work, because I only have cycle data going back for the last 23 years. With the help of AI, I have entered that data into an AI algorithm and that data correlates to an above average winter for both Utah and Colorado. We will see if the September storms affirm my belief.
Hurricane Dates
Below are the possibilities for hurricanes and locations. Sometimes we get the date right and the location is different. That has happened, if you recall a couple of years ago when we predicted the exact date of Hurricane Ida but predicted the storm to hit near the Texas/Louisiana coast.
I have some ideas on these alternate locations. The storm from 2 years ago spawned in the correct location, but the trade winds were in a different set-up, creating the path of which Ida eventually took. Understanding each cycles wind currents will give us a better chance of getting the location possibilities narrowed.
Below are the early opportunities for Hurricanes using our long-range prediction formula. Followed by the more likely scenario.
Less Likely
Aug 12-15 Yucatan
Aug 12-17 Pacific Storm
More Likely
Aug 30-Sept 6 Florida
Sept 6-8th Louisiana
Sept 30-Oct 3rd Yucatan
Sept 30-Oct 5 Pacific Storm
Final Thoughts
It’s almost August, just a couple more months and the first snowfall of the season will be hitting the slopes. Just for fun I have set our first snowfall prediction of October 6th, based on work I have been doing on the multi-year pattern.
We have been working on the backside of the site adding new pages and a bunch of web cams that will be consolidated and easy to navigate. We will be adding automated weather info as well, temperature, wind speed, freezing level, and short term forecast (7 days). Those items will be rolling out over the next couple of months along with some new features that I will discuss once we are in season.
Thanks for reading the blog! If you have any questions feel free to comment below or email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co
