Posted September 26, 2023
Equinox and Twilight at the North Pole
Not the North Pole, Breckinridge
Every September 22nd, the sun crosses the equator, moving south, as we move into fall. At the North Pole, the sun sets and drops completely below the horizon by the 24th. Twilight remains for 12 days before perpetual darkness sets in (October 6th) for 176 days.
Twilight is just beginning at the South Pole, as perpetual sunlight rises (October 6th). It is this celestial event that marks the end of the old pattern, everything thereafter is new. The mixture of new and old will be complete and repeat until we do this all over again next year.
As we are inching closer to the season, I will be posting more often. I will be in Winter Park next weekend and plan to see snow–hopefully. Trying to get in a few days of mountain biking before the slopes get covered. I was there last year for the first good snow. Below are some pics–along with opening weekend at A Basin.
Pattern Discussion
We are watching the northern hemisphere and tracking storms as they circumnavigate the globe. So far, so good, the pattern looks good. It doesn’t look like there will be any prolonged dry spells. I am still concerned about the potential for more blocking, as we have seen some high latitude blocking during the transition. That could be nothing, as a similar setup occurred last year and that turned out to be one of the greatest snow season of all time.
Teleconnections, teleconnecting.
It’s too early to tell what this El Nino will mean, but the storm track in October will set the tone for the upcoming season. Presently, the track looks good for the Pacific Northwest southeast through northern Utah and Colorado. We are seeing storms dig into southern California and Utah–another good sign and a little ahead of last year’s pace.
October Storm
We have been talking about this first storm for at least a month. Of course, this one is just for fun, it is beginning to show up on the GFS. That means that we have a good grasp of what will come next. This storm begins in the Pacific Northwest, late Thursday and takes a south-southeast track through Lake Tahoe, sliding through Utah and Colorado similar to last year. Lets go!!!!
Hurricane Discussion
The tropics have quieted down a bit, since ripping out the gate with Dora and the Hawaii fires, then Hilary and Idalia. There are indications of the return of Dora (Hawaii). The storm is on the GFS and is just that, a storm (subtropical). This next few days will tell us if things are going to heat up or remain weak.
Possible Hurricane Dates (prediction date May 19th)
Below are the updated predictions for possible hurricanes using our long-range prediction formula.
Aug 12-17 Pacific Storm—–Verified Hurricane Hilary
Aug 30-Sept 6 Florida—–Verified Hurricane Idalia
Sept 26-Oct 3 Florida (added Sept 4th)
Sept 27- Oct 5 Hawaii
Sept 30-Oct 3rd Yucatan
Sept 30-Oct 5 Pacific Storm
Oct 4-12 Possible Return of Hilary
You can find the original post May 19th, and all Hurricane posts on this page—most recent posts appear first. https://futuresnow.co/hurricane-forecast-2023/
Thanks for reading the blog! If you have any questions feel free to comment below or email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co
