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October Storm Update

By September 28, 2023No Comments

Posted September 28, 2023

This is an update for our first snowstorm prediction—October 6th

August 31, 2023

Back in the end of July, we made our first snowstorm prediction of October 6th, based on our long-range research. This storm is in the category of “just for fun” because you never can tell if we will have cold enough air, the storm path may not be ripe yet, etc.   

Well, this first storm has been on the models for over a week now, some hitting Colorado, some not.  Most model runs have been a day or two early, which is expected, all early predictions come with a plus or minus 2 days.  

Current Timeline

There are two systems, the first arrives to the PNW Friday afternoon and takes a southeast track hitting northern Utah late Saturday and northwest Colorado early Sunday morning. 

The second storm arrives Sunday morning to the PNW and slides down the coast bringing rain and high elevation snow to Lake Tahoe.  Then the storm moves east hitting Utah late Sunday and finally Colorado on Monday.  Not expecting much snow Monday.  The Low will track through Colorado dumping back-side snow that may reach as low as 7-8ooo ft Monday night thru Wednesday.  We will dial in these storms over the next couple of days.  


Below are the long-range snowfall charts from the blended models. 


From Tuesday 

Equinox and Twilight at the North Pole

Not the North Pole, Breckinridge

Every September 22nd, the sun crosses the equator, moving south, as we move into fall.  At the North Pole, the sun sets and drops completely below the horizon by the 24th.  Twilight remains for 12 days before perpetual darkness sets in (October 6th) for 176 days. 

Twilight is just beginning at the South Pole, as perpetual sunlight rises (October 6th).  It is this celestial event that marks the end of the old pattern, everything thereafter is new.  The mixture of new and old will be complete and repeat until we do this all over again next year.  

As we are inching closer to the season, I will be posting more often.  I will be in Winter Park next weekend and plan to see snow–hopefully.  Trying to get in a few days of mountain biking before the slopes get covered.  I was there last year for the first good snow.  Below are some pics–along with opening weekend at A Basin.

Pattern Discussion

We are watching the northern hemisphere and tracking storms as they circumnavigate the globe.  So far, so good, the pattern looks good.  It doesn’t look like there will be any prolonged dry spells.  I am still concerned about the potential for more blocking, as we have seen some high latitude blocking during the transition.  That could be nothing, as a similar setup occurred last year and that turned out to be one of the greatest snow season of all time.  

Teleconnections, teleconnecting.

It’s too early to tell what this El Nino will mean, but the storm track in October will set the tone for the upcoming season.  Presently, the track looks good for the Pacific Northwest southeast through northern Utah and Colorado.  We are seeing storms dig into southern California and Utah–another good sign and a little ahead of last year’s pace.  

October Storm

We have been talking about this first storm for at least a month.  Of course, this one is just for fun, it is beginning to show up on the GFS.  That means that we have a good grasp of what will come next.  This storm begins in the Pacific Northwest, late Thursday and takes a south-southeast track through Lake Tahoe, sliding through Utah and Colorado similar to last year.  Lets go!!!!

Hurricane Discussion

The tropics have quieted down a bit, since ripping out the gate with Dora and the Hawaii fires, then Hilary and Idalia.  There are indications of the return of Dora (Hawaii).  The storm is on the GFS and is just that, a storm (subtropical).  This next few days will tell us if things are going to heat up or remain weak.  

Possible Hurricane Dates (prediction date May 19th)

Below are the updated predictions for possible hurricanes using our long-range prediction formula.  

Aug 12-17 Pacific Storm—–Verified Hurricane Hilary

Aug 30-Sept 6 Florida—–Verified Hurricane Idalia

Sept 26-Oct 3 Florida (added Sept 4th)

Sept 27- Oct 5 Hawaii

Sept 30-Oct 3rd Yucatan

Sept 30-Oct 5 Pacific Storm

Oct 4-12 Possible Return of Hilary


You can find the original post May 19th, and all Hurricane posts on this page—most recent posts appear first.



Thanks for reading the blog!  If you have any questions feel free to comment below or email me at

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