Daily Snow Stakes
GFS All Snow
We have a break in the action as we are going through a lull, that has occurred in each of the last two cycles. The long-range forecast chart shows this gap, as we move into the next phase–the fourth long-range forecast, made on January 7th. We are presently nearly perfect, 39 out of 40, with only one bust, which is stupidly accurate. We have a variance of 2 days, due to uncertainty of the actual cycle length. That has made predictions easier, but that is still an incredible number. Moving forward, we will have a 1-day variance, so hopefully we have the cycle length dialed in correctly. The length does speed up and slow down, but 1 day is a pretty good number.
We continue to monitor the teleconnection signals for clues to the strength of upcoming storms, beginning with storm 41. We want like both the Artic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation to be deep negative. Presently, they are both positive and are projected to remain positive. So, for the near term, the systems will be weaker than previous cycles.
The Madden Jullian Oscillation (MJO) is presently in phase 3 and trending in the right direction. We want the MJO to be in phases 6,7 and 8 to enhance storm strength. There is a strong indication that the MJO is enhancing this year’s systems, as well as last year’s cycle 3. We will get a better grasp on this correlation, as we enter the aforementioned phases, to see if we continue to see better numbers.
The next storm on the long range is 41 and is presently weak at the moment. It’s there, right on schedule, but weak. We have about 80 hours before it arrives for model improvement.
Looking at storm predictions 42, 43, and 44 (PNW, Utah, Colorado) are presently weak to moderate. The following map shows the projected totals for the next 10 days from the Canadian model. We have some strong numbers in the Pacific Northwest and into Canada.
Here is another cool map that is useful for chasing powder. This map is “probability of snowfall over 3 inches”, again from the Canadian model. The map is followed by a 12-inch map and finally a 24-inch map. They have maps up to 48 inches, I will have to remember these maps the next time we have a massive storm–perhaps storm 47 at Tahoe, February 16th.
These model maps are helpful for picking a target area to chase. Many of you know Powder Chaser Steve, from his blog at PowderChasers, or OpenSnow.com This is one of the tools in the toolbox for planning those trips.
Weather Bell is one of the tools we use for forecasting. You can click on the link and sign up and get seven days for free. It is really a cool site to look through, if you want to geek out looking at their cool weather products. Another cool site is Tropical Tidbits. This is a free site, but you are welcome to donate. I do donate to this site, because I use their maps and also enjoy the passion that the author, Dr. Levi Cowan has for tropical storms.
We will be launching FutureHurricanes.com this spring, to continue our passion for predicting hurricanes. This will be a free site with not many bells and whistles. It is mainly a place to document our predictions and thoughts about the upcoming hurricane season.
I want to thank you again, for subscribing to FutureSnow. I had no idea that I would create this place for long-range forecasting. The idea came from Gary Lezak, years ago. Many of you know that I tried to get Joel Gratz, founder of OpenSnow to use the theory. It took him a little too long to come around, so I just started it on my own. It has been so much fun delivering this to you, and I hope we continue to grow together. Please tell all of your ski/snowboard buddies about us! As always, if you have any questions, or need personalized info for trip forecasts, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co
Long-Range Forecast Predictions thru March
Pacific Northwest Cascade Mountains
Lake Tahoe Sierra Mountains
Utah Wasatch Mountains
Colorado Rocky Mountains
Aspen, Aspen Highlands, Snowmass, Vail, Beaver Creek, Winter Park, Keystone, Arapahoe Basin, Breckenridge, Copper Mountain, Powderhorn, Ski Cooper, Telluride, Crested Butte, Silverton, Wolf Creek, Eldora, Loveland