Posted November 18, 2023
Forecast Summary
Modelitis, noun, eye pain coupled with brain fog, frustration.
The models do not have a good grip on the upcoming system. The Canadian model, featured above, has what I hope is the best solution. From run to run there is quite a difference as you can see below. I will list each run as a thumbnail. Click to animate. The first run is the latest Canadian model, followed by the last 4 GFS models, then the Euro and finally the IKON
They are all over the board. Next is the hemispheric view followed by the total snow chart thru Tuesday. Let’s hope the Canadian model is correct and the other models come into focus.
Finally, the 2 and 3-day totals by region. 2-day for the Pacific Northwest and Sierra–3-day for the Rockies.
Pattern Discussion Storm Scorecard by Region
We have a very interesting pattern this year. The Pacific Northwest is looking very good with 14 storms since October began. Colorado and Utah have had 7. Idaho, Montana and Wyoming around 11. British Columbia 15 and Alberta 12. Lake Tahoe 6 (mostly rain events).
What does that tell us about the pattern so far? It says that the place to ski this year is north. It is not time to hit the panic button yet, for the Sierra, Wasatch, and Rockies, but we might want to dust it off–just in case.
Teleconnections
We have not seen much amplification yet, so that, is possibly a positive. Looking at the teleconnections, both the AO (Artic Oscillation) and the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) are predicted to move towards negative territory around December 1st. The MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is presently in phase 1 and is predicted to enter phase 2 in the next week.
Last year, when the MJO was in phases neutral (where no phase is favored), 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 we experienced an average snowfall per storm of 11.6 inches. When the MJO was in phase 1, 7, and 8 we averaged 21.6 inches. Albeit a small sample size of last year, but over the last few years it seems there is a connection between the MJO and an enhanced pattern. This is something that I am researching in the off season.
Forecast
Heavy snow expected in the Pacific Northwest today as up to a foot of snow will fall for the southern Cascades resorts Timberline and Mt Hood Meadows. Mt Bachelor appears to be the sweet spot for this storm where we are looking at 1-2 feet! Northern Cascade resorts Crystal, Stevens Pass and Mt Baker will be in the 4-8 range.
Moving south the Lake Tahoe, there will be a mix of snow and rain with snow levels around 7500 feet. Expect 3-6 inches of heavy wet snow for Mt Rose, Palisades, Dodge Ridge, Homewood, Kirkwood and Sugar Bowl.
In Utah, we will have scattered snow showers late this morning and afternoon, but the main part of the storm hits tonight with 12-20 possible for Alta, Snowbird, with slightly less for Brighton. Solitude and Deer Valley will likely be in the 3-6 range.
Colorado gets underway tonight with the first wave bringing 2-4 inches for most resorts in the west, central and northern mountains, with another wave hitting on Sunday. Storm totals for Vail/Beaver Creek, Aspen, Breckenridge, Keystone Arapahoe Basin and Winter Park will be in the 4-8 range.
The southern mountains will be on Sunday with 8-12 likely for Telluride, Silverton and Wolf Creek.
Long Range Blended Model Forecast
Above are the northern pattern resorts of Whistler, Revelstoke and Banff Lake Louise. For some reason Weather Bell uses centimeters for Reve and WB and inches for Banff. These forecast models are probably wrong, because current technology just is not very good beyond 1 week, but this is something to watch to see if the models are in line with the LRC.
One thing to watch for on these charts is possibly a Steamboat surprise predicted for Tuesday December 5th. Can the GFS be as good as FutureSnow? My present thinking is there should be a storm around that timeframe and possibly a Nor’easter for the east coast. That could be a preview to the next set of predictions, we’ll see, the pattern is still being verified–stay tuned.
Test Predictions +/- 2 Days
Nov 9th Colorado Verified 1-Day Early
Nov 17th PNW Tonight
Nov 18th Utah On Track
Nov 19th Colorado On Track
Nov 22nd Tahoe (maybe) Still maybe (on the edge of the track)
Nov 23rd Utah On Track
Nov 24th Colorado On Track
Nov 27th Tahoe
Nov 28th Utah
Nov 29th Colorado
Hurricane Page
We accurately predicted 3 hurricanes this year. Hilary, Idalia, and Lidia. All three storms had the correct date and location, within 1 day of the predicted date. Hilary and Idalia had the predicted path.
The season is almost over but there might be one more. There is a possibility around November 17th that is showing up on the models around Cuba in the Caribbean Sea.
You can find the original post May 19th, and all Hurricane posts on this page—most recent posts appear first. https://futuresnow.co/hurricane-forecast-2023/
Thanks for reading the blog! If you have any questions, feel free to comment below or email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co
