Posted April 12, 6:26 am MT 5:26 am PT
Updated 5:14 am MT
The Storm has slowed and will now arrive between 6 and 7 am. Below is the radar link for NOAA.
Snow Stake Cams
MSLP Surface Chart thru Apr 15
It has been 6 days since Utah or Colorado has had any snow, which seems like an eternity. That has happened once since cycle 1; Jan 31st thru Feb 5th. Lake Tahoe has had some long stretches without any precipitation–their longest has been 15 days in cycle 2 and 10 days in cycle 3. They are going to have to wait until the next storm comes through, because this storm will miss to the north, but thanks to the MJO, the storm door will open back up for the Sierra Tuesday.
Today will be windy and warm for Colorado and Utah. There is a chance of some pop-up thunderstorms this afternoon for Colorado this afternoon and early evening.
Tonight, the snow moves into the Wasatch mountains after midnight, and most likely around 3 am. Temperatures will drop into the lower 20’s at 6200 feet.
Thursday, snow continues and will likely have some nice heavy bands that will accumulate quickly. Temperatures will be falling throughout the morning, with windchills in the single digits. with moderate winds at base level and upper mountain winds in the 30-40 mph range. The bulk of this storm will be finished by 1pm with scattered snow showers possible Thursday night. I’m expecting between 5-10 for Alta, Snowbird, Brighton and Solitude, with 2-4 for Park City, Deer Valley and Snowbasin.
Thursday night, the storm moves into Colorado. After a warm day in the 50’s the temperatures will crash and there will likely be rain first, switching over to all snow by 10 pm. This forecast is a little tricky due to the warm temperatures and the timing of the cold front, but I’ll say that generally there will be snow totals in the 2-4 range with the higher elevation resorts favored.
We will have a better solution tomorrow, but that is where we are now. Below is the 3 day totals for Colorado and Utah. I am obviously expecting higher totals for Utah than the map shows.
Cottonwood Canyon continues to moderate its open times. It is closed daily from 11 am to 4 pm for avalanche mitigation. Little Cottonwood Canyon is closed with no estimated opening.
Alta 23 inches to 900
Storm 80 It will be warm again today in Utah. Temperatures will rise into the low 50’s with moderate winds before the cold front hits sometime tonight. That will drop temperatures into the mid 20’s. The bulk of the precipitation will fall between midnight and noon Thursday. This is not a big storm and the models continue to show .3 to .5 inches of liquid, meaning about 4-8 inches of snow at 15:1. This correlates with the existing data from the previous 4 cycles for Alta. Cycle 1: light rain, Cycle 2: 8″, Cycle 3: 3″, and Cycle 4: 5″.
Storm 83 and 86 Storm 83 and 86 are connected and are a two-wave storm. They are a part of a huge low-pressure system that will develop in the Gulf of Alaska in the coming days. If both waves of this storm come through, we should get to within single digits for the last storm. All bets are off, this time of year due to the changing jet stream, so lets hope it hits.
I have this storm hitting on Monday, but it will most likely hit on Alta’s last day. I use averaging when making the long-range forecast, based on the storm’s history. This storm has been a “tweener” meaning it has hit a day early and a day late from cycle to cycle. It is a big storm so there will be at least 2-3 days of precipitation. With luck we will still have cold air in place. Could the 900 mark come down to the last day?
Thanks for reading the blog, as always if you have any questions feel free to comment below, or send me an email to Mike@FutureSnow.CO
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