Daily Snow Stake
Surface Chart
All Snow Chart (thru Mar 6)
Forecast
The next system follows on the heels of today’s storm. This system digs into southern California with a trough developing on Tuesday. Below is the GFS 500 mb chart of the flow. 500 mb is about halfway up in the atmosphere where most of the action happens. Once the trough develops, the big clockwise moving circle (area of high pressure), off the coast of California, gets pushed farther west (because of the dip in the AO), opening the door for Lake Tahoe Tuesday.
That trough will bring 1-2 feet of snow to the Lake, in some places, and opens the door for storms later in the week.
Colorado
Today
Snow should begin as early as 8 am, from west to east, and will be off and on throughout the day and will likely not reach the southern mountains. I am expecting, generally, 2-4 to 3-5 for northern, along I-70 and resorts along the divide. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 20’s with moderate to strong winds 15-25 mph.
Presidents Day
Scattered snow showers throughout the day. I am not expecting much accumulation. Temperatures will be around 30 with strong winds with 40 mph gusts. Southern mountains will likely be skunked with this first wave but will get in on the action Tuesday night. Bluebird skies for Presidents Day with temperatures in the upper 30’s and light winds 10-15 mph.
Big Storm Hits Tuesday Night
Utah
Today
Snow exits early today; skies will clear by afternoon. Temperatures in the mid 20’s with moderate winds from 10-15 mph.
Presidents Day
The big storm will arrive after lunch with the main energy after the lifts close. Temperatures steady in the mid 20’s with moderate winds 10-15, but it will feel a lot colder with no sun. Windchills near zero.
PNW
Lake Tahoe
Today thru Monday
Nice….warm, mid 40’s tomorrow, to upper 40’s by Monday. Light winds.
Tuesday
The first storm misses north, but the second storm will dive into the Tahoe area on Tuesday afternoon. More detailed snow totals tomorrow but should be in the 1-2 feet range for Dodge Ridge and Kirkwood, with 6-12 inches for Mammoth, Homewood, and Sugar Bowl.
I’ll be in Alta Thursday
I will be in Alta for the storm, the 23rd-26th. I have heard from a couple members that will be there, I am looking forward to taking some laps with you (Steve S and Bill T). If you are going to be in the area let’s, get together for some runs and après.
Snow Concierge Free for Annual Members
This upcoming storm is one of the dates that I targeted for an Alta trip this year. If you would like to know when to plan a trip, or what the weather will be when you will be at a resort, try our Snow Concierge Service, it’s included with your annual subscription. Simply email me with your plans, or we can tell you where and when to go, using our forecasting expertise and the patent pending LRC model.
We have had over 50 people reach out to us this year, which is double the number, already, from last year. That’s why we are here. You can email anytime at Mike@FutureSnow.CO
Pattern Discussion (from yesterday)
Remember last year, when Utah and Colorado resorts, would go 10 plus days without snow? Lake Tahoe resorts would go 30 days without significant snow last year. Well, we don’t have those long dry stretches this season. This year’s longest dry stretch has been 6 days, with Lake Tahoe going 15 days without significant snow. The pattern length shrunk two weeks, from 64 days last year, to 50. Those dry stretches shrunk as well, while keeping the same amount of storm systems.
This is a fresh MJO chart, valid today thru March 4th. The red line is the past and the green line is the projected path. We are in phase 7 and each dot in the green represents a day.
Click to Enlarge
Both this year and last, saw amplification from the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation). Last year, it only occurred once, in part of cycle 2 from December 10 thru January 8th. This year, it has happened in all three cycles. As we have discussed, the first two cycles had a wide-open throttle, with favorable (no blocking) conditions from the Artic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). 
This cycle, we have seen blocking from both the AO and NAO, but both are trending towards neutral, the AO has a steep dip, which is occurring now. That rebounds and is projected to fall towards neutral, possibly go negative, towards the end of next week.
All of that was a long-winded discussion about the trend I am seeing in the models. The trend appears to be amplified, with Tuesday’s storm benefiting from the alignment of teleconnections. What happens during the alignment? We have stronger storms with extra waves in between systems. This is not science fact; it is just an observation that I have seen through the last couple of years. With the MJO, NAO and AO aligned, Tuesday’s system looks like what has occurred in the aforementioned cycles.
Admittedly, the LRC (Lezak’s Recurring Cycle), is part art, part science. It is part art, because we don’t have a way to quantify how/why some of these things happen. We just know that they do–for now. Most meteorologists have a hard time seeing the art part and dismiss this theory all together. That’s ok, it’s nice to have it all to ourselves, for now, once the really smart people catch on, remember…you heard it first right here!
Thank you for reading the blog, as always, if you have any questions, or need personalized info for trip forecasts, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co
Forecasted Areas
Pacific Northwest Cascade Mountains
Crystal Mountain, Mount Hood Meadows, Timberline, 49 Degrees North, Bachelor, Mt Baker,
Lake Tahoe Sierra Mountains
Heavenly, Palisades Tahoe, Kirkwood, Dodge Ridge, Donner Ski Ranch
Utah Wasatch Mountains
Alta, Park City, Deer Valley, Brighton, Snowbird, Brian Head
Colorado Rocky Mountains
Aspen, Aspen Highlands, Snowmass, Vail, Beaver Creek, Winter Park, Keystone, Arapahoe Basin, Breckenridge, Copper Mountain, Powderhorn, Ski Cooper, Telluride, Crested Butte, Silverton, Wolf Creek, Eldora, Loveland
–
