Nov 26, 2024
Daily Snow Stake
GOES Infrared Flow
GFS Surface, 500 mb thru Model Range (Let it Go)
HRRR, NAM and Euro Ensemble thru Thanksgiving
Lake Tahoe Total Snowfall thru Wednesday
Utah Total Snowfall thru Wednesday
Colorado Total Snowfall thru Wednesday
Forecast Summary
Well, here we go the last big storm of November, and it is strong! Winter Storm Warnings everywhere, dogs and cats living together–mass hysteria!
Heavy snow today and tonight in the Wasatch to the Colorado Rockies. The storm is a little more intense in Colorado where areas like Vail and Beaver Creek are looking at 1-2 feet by tomorrow. I did not change my forecasted totals on the above snow totals for Colorado and they are likely a little light. I think the travel impacts are a little off from the NWS, I’m sure travel will be really bad and road closures are probable–so get out there now, why are you still reading this!
Enjoy this storm as we will have a little break until the next system comes in. Looking at the Long-Range Predictions chart, the next storm for Utah and Colorado is way out to December 16th. There is a possible storm that may hit and the models are picking up on it. This is a clipper that looks to be cut off, last time thru it did not cut. We’ll see how it turns out soon–around Dec 8.
24-25 Pattern
Cycle length
This is a long pattern between 55-65 days. It is similar to the 21-22 cycle year where the cycle length was 64 days. During that season, there were two distinct patterns within the pattern. We had a regular pattern, where storms moved from the PNW southeast thru Utah and Colorado, and we had the “northern part of the pattern” where storms moved thru the PNW east, staying along and north of the US/Canada border.
This pattern is similar, and we won’t know if it will remain the same until we get through these next couple of weeks. When you look at the Long-Range Forecast Predictions for December, you don’t see many Utah and Colorado storms on there. This is because of the northern part of the pattern. That will flip around mid-December, and the Active Pattern will return for the Sierra and Rockies. In fact, if I am right on this pattern, from Christmas until late January should be very good–as long as we have the right teleconnection help.
If we get help from the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Artic Oscillation (AO) during the Northern Pattern, we can get bonus storms, as the whole pattern is amplified. All we need from the AO is neutral conditions, at the least, with an MJO that is in phase 6-7 or 8. Itis a plus to have strong negative AO with the aforementioned MJO phases.
Lastly, if we get agreement from the AO and MJO during the Active Pattern, look out. Then we will have a Trifecta like we had in the 19-20 season, where we had 60 inches in 5 days in Summit and Eagle counties, in February 20. I can’t believe it has been that long.
Predictions Summary
This is what we do at FutureSnow. We specialize in the long-range forecast so you can plan a ski or snowboard trip around powder. It is amazing to see this chart below, from last year. Now admittedly, I cherry picked this part of the chart that had only one bust, but it demonstrates the possibilities of weather prediction for the future. You can pick a flight, hotel, car etc. and not have to pay “last minute” prices chasing a storm 3 days out.
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