Nov 25, 2024
Daily Snow Stake
Yesterday 6pm Snow Stake
GFS All Snow thru Thanksgiving
HRRR, NAM and Euro Ensemble thru Thanksgiving, All Snow Let It Go thru Dec 10
Lake Tahoe Total Snowfall thru Wednesday
PNW Total Snowfall thru Wednesday
Utah Total Snowfall thru Wednesday
Colorado Total Snowfall thru Wednesday
Forecast Summary
The incoming storm are the remnants of the Atmospheric River (AR) event last week, as a binary low-pressure area spins off the coast of Oregon (click the animation to watch the flow).
This storm is going to bring deep snow fall to Tahoe, Utah and Colorado just in time for your Thanksgiving resort openings. For Lake Tahoe, the deepest totals will be in the southern resorts, Kirkwood and Mammoth, Sierra at Tahoe should be nice too. Temps will be on the warm side, as they always are with AR events, but the wind will not be that bad, low to mid 20’s with ridgetop winds around 40 mph. The system moves out early Wednesday.
In Utah, it will be a nice day to be on the hill with partly cloudy skies and light winds. The storm moves in tonight around 10 and will bring at least 6 by morning tomorrow for Alta, Snowbird, Solitude and maybe Brighton. Tuesday will be a “Ride the Storm” day with heavy snow and light winds. Check the road conditions before you go. Bluebird skies for Thanksgiving Day riding.
Colorado gets underway late tonight or early tomorrow after midnight. The timing will impact snow totals, but not that much as the strong part of the storm will hit Tomorrow. Utah got the light winds, but Colorado will have pretty strong winds when this storm gets cranking, with the strongest winds in the southern ranges and the passes. 1-3 feet possible in spots with likely bluebird skies on Thanksgiving day.
Yesterday on the Hill
24-25 Pattern
Cycle length
This is a long pattern between 55-65 days. It is similar to the 21-22 cycle year where the cycle length was 64 days. During that season, there were two distinct patterns within the pattern. We had a regular pattern, where storms moved from the PNW southeast thru Utah and Colorado, and we had the “northern part of the pattern” where storms moved thru the PNW east, staying along and north of the US/Canada border.
This pattern is similar, and we won’t know if it will remain the same until we get through these next couple of weeks. When you look at the Long-Range Forecast Predictions for December, you don’t see many Utah and Colorado storms on there. This is because of the northern part of the pattern. That will flip around mid-December, and the Active Pattern will return for the Sierra and Rockies. In fact, if I am right on this pattern, from Christmas until late January should be very good–as long as we have the right teleconnection help.
If we get help from the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Artic Oscillation (AO) during the Northern Pattern, we can get bonus storms, as the whole pattern is amplified. All we need from the AO is neutral conditions, at the least, with an MJO that is in phase 6-7 or 8. Itis a plus to have strong negative AO with the aforementioned MJO phases.
Lastly, if we get agreement from the AO and MJO during the Active Pattern, look out. Then we will have a Trifecta like we had in the 19-20 season, where we had 60 inches in 5 days in Summit and Eagle counties, in February 20. I can’t believe it has been that long.
Predictions Summary
This is what we do at FutureSnow. We specialize in the long-range forecast so you can plan a ski or snowboard trip around powder. It is amazing to see this chart below, from last year. Now admittedly, I cherry picked this part of the chart that had only one bust, but it demonstrates the possibilities of weather prediction for the future. You can pick a flight, hotel, car etc. and not have to pay “last minute” prices chasing a storm 3 days out.
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