Tahoe

Tahoe

Those of you who live in the Tahoe area and follow Bryan Allegretto on OpenSnow know that I listed a few “chance” dates in the comments section a few weeks ago before model range. The second date, April 7-8, looks likely. This method, Wave Theory, as Mike Korotkin described on The Flakes Podcast, is really incredible. I don’t understand how it works. I have heard scientist try to describe what they think happens–the polar regions get covered in snow and the north pole goes into perpetual darkness until spring. Triggering some mechanism that anchors troughs in permanent positions until summer. The atmospheric flow follows those anchors and repeats. How? I sure don’t know! I’m sopping up as much knowledge as I can to better understand this phenomenon. All I know is it works.

So back to Tahoe. The first chance is a “Bowling Ball” event, as Bryan describes it, is scheduled for April 7-8th. A bowling ball is a cut-off low that spins of the coast until it gets sucked into the flow of the Jetstream. I had seen these cut-off lows in the early setup of this seasons Pattern so I thought I could go back through the data and predict one. I picked a couple of likely dates, according to the Pattern, and chose Feb 27th. April 7-8th was another likely date to pick a cut-off low, but I chose the 27th and it happened within 1.5 days of said prediction. I couldn’t get Bryan to bite on the challenge.

Below is the projected snowfall as of today–still a long ways off. I will keep monitoring the incoming system as it approaches.

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