Pattern Verifying

We have been pouring through charts and analyzing data to verify the pattern. A lot of work goes into deciphering the cycle length. The length of the cycle is critical to accurate long range forecasts. Remember, every fall a new pattern begins and repeats, or cycles, until late summer. The old pattern dissolves and the new pattern becomes established. The new pattern, for this season, was sent back in September.

Recap 20-21 Season

This year‘s pattern will be longer than last years 46 day pattern. The 20-21 season had two main storms that I called Co-Sig 1 and 2, for cosignature storms. It also had a large inactive stretches that lasted for about two weeks. That helped us explain the pattern, because at FutureSnow, we knew when those stretches would occur and most importantly, when the active part of the pattern would return.

If you follow the Tahoe Daily Snow, with Bryan Allegretto, or the Colorado Daily Snow, by Joel Gratz, you’ve seen my comments. It’s not easy convincing people, especially meteorologists, that what they have been told, through years of school and certifications, is wrong. In the comments section of these blogs, I would make predictions and get grilled from other commenters. As the season wore on though, the tide began to turn. Thanks to the Pattern.

First Prediction

The fact that the weather repeats, will someday be taught. For now, you have FutureSnow. My first prediction, this year, was made on Bryan’s blog on October 4th for November 6th. I have never made a prediction this early. Last years first prediction was December 4th. The November 6th storm is just showing up on the models (over 350 hours out). It has the correct look, and most importantly the correct timing. Last time through it hit the PNW—a solid storm that tracked through Whistler down to Mt. Hood and across to Montana and Jackson Hole. It just clipped NorCal, Utah and Colorado. I am hoping with a stronger Jet that if will drop down further. Will keep an eye on this one. Mike

Last time through
Tahoe

Tahoe

Those of you who live in the Tahoe area and follow Bryan Allegretto on OpenSnow know that I listed a few “chance” dates in the comments section a few weeks ago before model range. The second date, April 7-8, looks likely. This method, Wave Theory, as Mike Korotkin described on The Flakes Podcast, is really incredible. I don’t understand how it works. I have heard scientist try to describe what they think happens–the polar regions get covered in snow and the north pole goes into perpetual darkness until spring. Triggering some mechanism that anchors troughs in permanent positions until summer. The atmospheric flow follows those anchors and repeats. How? I sure don’t know! I’m sopping up as much knowledge as I can to better understand this phenomenon. All I know is it works.

So back to Tahoe. The first chance is a “Bowling Ball” event, as Bryan describes it, is scheduled for April 7-8th. A bowling ball is a cut-off low that spins of the coast until it gets sucked into the flow of the Jetstream. I had seen these cut-off lows in the early setup of this seasons Pattern so I thought I could go back through the data and predict one. I picked a couple of likely dates, according to the Pattern, and chose Feb 27th. April 7-8th was another likely date to pick a cut-off low, but I chose the 27th and it happened within 1.5 days of said prediction. I couldn’t get Bryan to bite on the challenge.

Below is the projected snowfall as of today–still a long ways off. I will keep monitoring the incoming system as it approaches.

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FutureSnow Survey – FutureSnow