It has been an amazing year so far, FutureSnow has accurately predicted 23 out of 27 events, that’s 85%. That is really an amazing statistic because all of the predictions have been made at least 25 days in advance before any models are in range. The longest was 56 days for Colorado where Vail had 13 inches. There is an even longer prediction coming up, 67 days, for March 9-11th. I would love to end the ski season with 90%. This is not meant as a brag, I just simply interpret the data, it more of how cool it is to know when these systems will come through.
We are in the part of the pattern where the Heady/LRC becomes clear. We have completed 2 cycles and have compiled 92 days (1,152 GFS snapshots) worth of data, snow totals from resorts and not to mention all of the data from August and September where the pattern developed. I am releasing Future Snows predictions out to March 12th, as well as the results from every prediction to date.
January 25-26 Let’s dive into the predictions for the upcoming storms. January 25-26 for Colorado. This prediction was made back on December 13th. This storm occurs on days 21-23 of each cycle. The first time through back on December 26 Vail received 10” snow and additional rain, the second time through 12”. January and February are usually the strongest producing cycles, so let’s hope in this La Niña year it comes through. When I compiled this report I added Utah resorts, specifically Alta for January 25-26. I don’t have resort need it for the first cycle, however it’s clear by GFS that they received precipitation. The second time through they get 15”. Lake Tahoe was missed the first cycle, but did receive snow on the second cycle. So I will give Lake Tahoe a “maybe” as they are on the edge of this year’s pattern.
The storm is for Utah resorts, specifically Alta February 7-8. Alta received 12” during the first cycle, and 20” during the second cycle. For Colorado resorts the first cycle kicked off a week of storms on days 34 through 41. Vail received 25” during that week with the southern resort of Wolf Creek 28” of powder over 3days. The second time through four Colorado resorts was not as productive. They’ll get a paltry 4” during the first wave and an additional 9” with the second wave. In past years, cycle three has been more like cycle 1, but stronger—let’s hope that continues but either way, it will be an active period. Lake Tahoe was missed on the first wave, but picked up 13 inches at Sugar Bowl on dates 36 and 37. Lake Tahoeyou get a strong maybe—I’ll give you a heads up if it appears the storm is big enough on the model runs.
February 18 –19
The February 18 storm kicks off in the Pacific Northwest. I added this storm January 3 which is 46 days out from this publication. The Pacific Northwest is getting the snow this year. The snow goes somewhere every year and obviously this year it’s PNW and Canada. In the first cycle Crystal Mountain received snow from days 41 through 46 of the pattern. The only reported Snowfall came on day 45 and 46 when they started recording at the resort (15”). During the second cycle over the same time period hey received 33”. It’s a safe bet that Valentine’s Day is when the storm will begin but the best days should be the 18-19th for Crystal Mountain.
Colorado Resorts. Cycle 4 storm on days 21-22 of the cycle. I’ll update this prediction after cycle 3.
The Christmas storm is showing up on the models, right on schedule. It begins with Tahoe on the 22nd.
The pacific northwest will be blasted with this storm, it will then move across Utah and finally into Colorado and New Mexico. Hopefully it’s as big as I am expecting it to be and it gives us two solid Powder days of double digit numbers.