It has been an amazing year so far, FutureSnow has accurately predicted 23 out of 27 events, that’s 85%. That is really an amazing statistic because all of the predictions have been made at least 25 days in advance before any models are in range. The longest was 56 days for Colorado where Vail had 13 inches. There is an even longer prediction coming up, 67 days, for March 9-11th. I would love to end the ski season with 90%. This is not meant as a brag, I just simply interpret the data, it more of how cool it is to know when these systems will come through.
There are so many examples of Recurring Pattern that happen each year. This is just another one of them. If you look at this present storm and then you look at the storm from 46 days ago they are almost identical. Meteorologists, climatologists, atmospheric scientists all miss this. We have cycles everywhere, oscillations, etc. and yet they still miss it. Why, it looks like it’s so easy? It’s not, it’s very subtle. Gary Lezak, a leading meteorologist on the subject, once said to me “the artist will see the pattern much faster than the scientist”. That is so true, it took me years just to convince Joel Gratz, of OpenSnow.com—and he’s still skeptical. Doug Heady, an incredible expert and Founder in this field says, I’m paraphrasing, even when you know the cycle length, there is so many variables that go into each and every storm. That’s why it’s so hard to understand. Someday though it will be understood and modeled.
Ok so let’s dive in. Look at these two pictures. The flow, the storm, the ridging all match. Now this doesn’t happen very often. But when it does it makes you understand that the cycles can set up the same.
The flow is signified in blue, the red squiggly lines are the ridges, and the green circle is the particular wave, or storm coming on shore. In the December snapshot you can see right where the polar vortex is going to go. Fits right into the puzzle. When you look back to the teleconnections in December and look at the teleconnections today, they are similar. When all the variables lineup the same the outcome is the same—roughly.
The storm that I have forecasted for February 18th is on the way. The last few storms have been trending about 12 hours early, that is because the cycle length is about 45.8 days and we are in the tail end of cycle 3.
Here is an update on the bombcyclone, back on January 1 I posted that the bomb cyclone that was hitting Alaska at the Aleutian Islands would return on Presidents’ Day. Well it’s Presidents’ Day and the storm is right on time. Not a bomb cyclone this time but a nice low. It’ll come back around April 3.