Posted November 21, 2023
Just a quick update with projected snow totals and track.
Projected storm totals for Utah and Colorado
500 Mb Flow
All Snow Let It Roll (15 day GFS)
The highest totals were in Utah with Snowbird coming in at 14 and Alta 12. The Colorado surprise was in the western part of the state where Powderhorn came in at 10 inches, followed by Winter Park around 6-7 inches. Most other areas came in between 3-6.
Scattered snow showers throughout the day, for Colorado, with minimal accumulations, except along the divide where Arapahoe Basin and Loveland will be in the 2-4 range.
The next storm is on time and on track. That system will arrive in the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night with a rain/snow mix as snow levels will drop to 6500 feet late in the day. Oregon resorts will likely begin Wednesday. That storm takes a southeast track towards Utah and may impact mountain travel Thanksgiving Day–the strongest energy will occur Thursday night.
Colorado gets in on the action Thanksgiving Day with scattered snow showers, as a front passes through. By late Thursday night, or early Friday morning the storm gets cooking. Details and snow totals by Wednesdays post.
Thanks for reading the blog! If you have any questions, feel free to comment below or email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co
We have not seen much amplification yet, so that, is possibly a positive. Looking at the teleconnections, both the AO (Artic Oscillation) and the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) are predicted to move towards negative territory around December 1st. The MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is presently in phase 1 and is predicted to enter phase 2 in the next week.
Last year, when the MJO was in phases neutral (where no phase is favored), 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 we experienced an average snowfall per storm of 11.6 inches. When the MJO was in phase 1, 7, and 8 we averaged 21.6 inches. Albeit a small sample size of last year, but over the last few years it seems there is a connection between the MJO and an enhanced pattern. This is something that I am researching in the off season.
Test Predictions +/- 2 Days
Nov 9th Colorado Verified 1-Day Early
Nov 17th PNW Verified
Nov 18th Utah Verified
Nov 19th Colorado Verified
Nov 22nd Tahoe (maybe) Slim Chance
Nov 23rd Utah On Track
Nov 24th Colorado On Track
Nov 27th Tahoe
Nov 28th Utah
Nov 29th Colorado