The pattern is set and cycling. We are 2/3 of the way through the second cycle of this year’s pattern. What is the pattern? Every year a unique pattern sets up in late summer and is established by mid September. Each year has a different cycle length. The strength of ENSO (El Niño or La Niña) and other teleconnections, determine the cycle length. Once set, the pattern cycles regularly through winter, spring and early summer.
Short Term Forecast
There is a small wave of energy that will take a northern track through Canada—it is right on time. That brings us to the next low pressure system that will drop down from the Aleutian Islands. The last time this system came through it took a northern track, due to the weaker jet stream of fall. This time through it will gain strength and reach as far south as the Tahoe area next Thursday and Friday. By Saturday it will pass through Utah and Colorado.
Long Range Forecast
On Saturday, November 6, there will be a moderate system that will arrive at the west coast of Canada, taking a northern track through Whistler, Revelstoke and Lake Louise. Around November 10 or 11th, there will be a larger system that the models haven’t dialed in on yet. The GFS has a system showing up, but it should be larger. The last time through it hit the west coast and took a northeastern track skirting Colorado with Utah resorts and Jackson Hole the winners.
Future Snow Forecast
Pattern storms coming up:
Nov 20-22 PNW 3 day storm and an active week
Nov 21 Utah
Nov 22 Colorado—Pacific Northwest storm will arrive in Colorado
Nov 28-29th Tahoe. Active West Pattern
Nov 30-Dec 2 Utah
Dec 5th Utah
Dec 6th Colorado
I like the new graphics and section headers. That cleans it up nicely
Is it safe to say the pattern is on a 15 day cycle from October 12th, October 27th, November 11th, and so on for the season. Specifically Colorado/NW Wyoming/SW Montana?
The cycle length has a range of upper 30s on the low side and upper 60s on the high side. The stronger the La Nina, the lower the number. The stronger an El Nino, the larger the number. There are mini-cycles, cycles within a cycle, that can be 15 days. We call those harmonics.